Obama’s Advantage Over Romney Similar to Lead Over McCain in 2008

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator John McCain of Arizona prior to a presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, in this Oct. 15, 2008 file photo.

President Barack Obama’s advantage over Republican challenger Mitt Romney among female voters is similar to his pre-election margins four years ago, though Obama’s edge among all voters is smaller than at a similar point in 2008.

Obama leads by 56 percent to 38 percent among women in a survey of likely voters released today by Quinnipiac University. Romney leads among men, by 52 percent to 42 percent.

Romney had a four-percentage-point advantage among all  likely voters in this survey.

Obama was favored similarly among women four years ago, while Romney is faring better among men than the 2008 Republican nominee, Arizona Senator John McCain, polls show.

In mid-September 2008, Quinnipiac showed Obama holding a 14-point lead over McCain, by 54 percent to 40 percent, among likely women voters. McCain led among men, by 50 percent to 43 percent. A Pew Research Center poll of registered voters taken Sept. 27-29, 2008, put Obama ahead among women, by 54 percent to 37 percent, while McCain led among men, by 47 percent to 43 percent.

On Election Day 2008, exit polls showed Obama beating McCain among women, by 56 percent to 43 percent, and winning by one point among men, 49 percent to 48 percent. Obama won the overall popular vote, 53 percent to 46 percent, and the Electoral College vote, 365 to 173.

Obama held a 49 percent to 45 percent margin among all voters in the latest Quinnipiac survey of 1,912 likely voters taken Sept. 25-30. That matches his lead in the daily tracking poll for the period Sept. 24-30. The president led by 49 percent to 47 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post survey of likely voters conducted Sept. 26-29. Obama held a 49 percent to 43 percent advantage among likely voters in a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 21-24.

Obama had a larger lead over McCain among all voters at this point four years ago.

Obama led McCain by 49 percent to 42 percent in a Gallup survey of registered voters conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2, 2008, and based on a three-day rolling average. Obama held the same 49 percent to 42 percent advantage among registered voters in a poll conducted Sept. 27-29, 2008, by the Pew Research Center. He held a 45 percent to 41 percent edge among likely voters in a Sept. 28-Oct. 2, 2008, poll conducted by Lake Research Partners, a Democratic firm, and the Tarrance Group, a Republican firm.

All of the surveys were conducted after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26 and before the second debate on Oct. 7, and after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history on Sept. 15. Obama and Romney hold their first of three debates tomorrow in Denver, Colorado. It starts at 9 p.m. Washington time and focuses on the economy and other domestic issues.

Jonathan Salant contributed to this report. 


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