Obama-Romney: Breaking the Tie

Neither President Barack Obama nor Republican Mitt Romney ever drew more than 50 percent of the likely voters surveyed by ABC News and the Washington Post since early July.

Neither slipped below 46 percent in four months of a campaign that has coursed through two nominating conventions, three nationally televised debates and one million TV ads.

On Election Day, the only poll that counts will be taken.

Watch it here, at Political Capital, where we’re tracking the final — one hopes — day of a contest that has cost $2 billion, counting the investments of the president and his Republican rival and the super-PACs backing their campaigns.

Romney has added two leave-no-stones-unturned campaign stops on Election Day — one in Cleveland, in the state that has been a must-win for any Republican claiming  the White House, the second in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, a state that hasn’t voted Republican since 1988 but which Romney hopes might help him expand his electoral map in a contest virtually tied in national polling.

After 10 days of a statistical tie in the ABC/Post track, with Obama and R0mney either dead-even among likely voters surveyed or running within one statistically insignificant point of each other, the poll broke 50 percent Obama, 47 percent Romney today.

“The difference between the candidates in the final weekend tally is right at the 2.5 percentage margin of sampling error for the final four-night sample of 2,345 likely voters,” the Washington Post’s Jennifer Lee writes. “This makes Obama’s being at plus three points over Romney an edge only by the slimmest of margins, well below conventional measures of statistical significance.”

That also is a measure of the potential popular vote.

Yet it is in a relatively few swing states that will determine the balance of votes in the Electoral College — Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina — where the final poll will be cast.

Political Capital has brought a menu of data and perspective to the contests in these states, and the race nationally, since Spring.

Political Capital also is home to “Bloomberg by the Numbers. ”

Check in on Election Day, and election night, for the Number of the Year.


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