Photograph by John Moore/Getty Images

Mexican immigrants work on a housing construction site on May 3, 2013 in Denver, Colorado.

A Social Security Administration analysis says the Senate’s bipartisan immigration proposal would boost U.S. tax revenue, create jobs and increase the gross domestic product over the next 10 years.

Stephen Gross, chief actuary for the agency, says the bill would have a “substantial positive effect” on the economy, in a letter to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican who helped draft the legislation and requested the analysis.

The analysis, released today, may aid backers of the legislation, which has been criticized by opponents as a drain on the U.S. economy. A report released earlier this week by the Republican-leaning Heritage Foundation said that creating a path to citizenship for about 11 million undocumented immigrants now in the U.S. would cost taxpayers $6.3 trillion over five decades.

According to the Social Security Administration, the bill would add more than $275 billion in revenue to Social Security and Medicare, increase the gross domestic product by 1.63 percent and add more than 3 million jobs over the next decade.

The Senate Judiciary Committee tomorrow plans to begin considering hundreds of amendments to the legislation.

“The timing couldn’t be better,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of immigrant-rights group America’s Voice in
Washington. “It’s a game changer.”

Original post is Social Security Report ‘Game-Changer’ for Immigration Bill by Political Capital.

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Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, seen speaking at the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa, is working with Senate Democrats on an immigration package. Photo by Getty Images.

Senate Democrats plan to put forward an immigration proposal next week, with President Barack Obama telling Hispanic lawmakers that he intends to push legislation as quickly as possible.

Obama will begin a public campaign to build support for an immigration package that will include a pathway to citizenship for the nation’s 11 million undocumented immigrants. A bipartisan group of six senators also plans to release a detailed framework laying out their principals for a bill as soon as the end of next week, Senate aides say.

The president “made it very clear that this is his number one legislative priority,” Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra of California, said after meeting yesterday with Obama at the White House. “In every sense of the word he is in the starting gate.”

The immigration proposal will be the centerpiece of the president’s planned stop on Jan. 29 in Las Vegas, Nevada, a state that Obama won in the last two elections and where Hispanics make up 27 percent of the population.

Passage of a comprehensive immigration bill would fulfill a promise Obama made in both of his presidential campaigns. He won 71 percent of Hispanic voters in his re-election victory. Last June, he took executive action to halt deportations of young people brought illegally to the U.S. as children and make them eligible for work permits.

Since Obama won a second term, the administration has intensified its work on a legislative plan with immigrant-rights advocates, law-enforcement officials and religious leaders who support a change.

A bipartisan group of senators is working on a parallel track to write a bill, and they may release an agreement as soon as next week. White House officials and Democratic leaders are negotiating over who will release their plan first, according to congressional aides.

The Senate proposal will cover four major areas, border enforcement, managing the future flow of immigrants to the U.S., workplace verification standards and a pathway for citizenship for undocumented immigrants, Senate aides said. While Republicans have pushed to take a piecemeal approach, taking up the different components in separate bills, the legislation will be comprehensive, the aides say.

The group includes Republicans Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, John McCain of Arizona and Marco Rubio of Florida, along with Democrats Chuck Schumer of New York, Dick Durbin of Illinois and Robert Menendez of New Jersey, aides say. Rubio, weighing whether to offer his own legislation, joined the group after November’s elections. Republican Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, Democratic Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado and Utah Republican Senator Mike Lee have also been involved in the discussions, according to Senate aides.

Sen. Patrick Leahy, a Vermont Democrat and chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, plans to hold hearings on the issue next month. The goal is for legislation to reach the Senate floor by May or June.

While many Republicans in Congress have criticized creating a system to grant citizenship to undocumented immigrants as amnesty for people who entered the U.S. illegally, the party has softened its stance as Hispanic political clout has grown.

Former Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour says the nation needs to revamp its immigration laws, including citizenship for undocumented people and is urging his party to reach out to minorities or face more electoral losses.

“We’ve got to face up to some demographic issues” if Republicans hope to win the White House in 2016, he says in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt” airing this weekend.

National exit polls showed that 10 percent of the electorate was Latino in November, compared with 9 percent four years ago and 8 percent in 2004. Hispanics constitute 16.7 percent of the total U.S. population, the largest ethnic or racial minority, according to the Census Bureau.

The former Mississippi governor says allowing many of the illegal immigrants in the U.S. to stay makes economic as well as political sense.

“If we will follow what’s good economic policy, we will recognize that we are in a global battle for capital and for labor,” Barbour said. “We need the labor, not just H-1B visas for PhDs and engineering from India, but also we need agricultural labor.”

White House press secretary Jay Carney says Obama will be promoting the same set of proposals that were part of his election campaign.

In his Jan. 21 inaugural address, Obama said the immigration issue is tied to economic growth.

“Our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land of opportunity, until bright young students and engineers are enlisted in our workforce rather than expelled from our country,” the president said.

Original post is Immigration: Obama, Senate Leaders Pushing Reforms at ‘Starting Gate’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

The Capitol stands in the background as police monitor a checkpoint during the U.S. presidential inauguration in Washington.

The Obama administration is welcoming a move by House Republicans to vote tomorrow on raising the nation’s debt ceiling through mid-May as a “de-escalation” of the fiscal debate, White House press secretary Jay Carney says.

“The fact that House Republicans have made this decision is certainly something that we welcome,” Carney said at a briefing. It means they will “back away from the kind of brinkmanship” over the federal debt limit that creates uncertainty for companies and is harmful to the economy.

Carney said the administration still prefers a long-term extension of the nation’s debt ceiling. Still, President Barack Obama “would not stand in the way” if Congress passes the proposal.

The Treasury reached its statutory borrowing limit on Dec. 31 and is using “extraordinary” measures. Those measures will work only until mid-February to early March, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a Jan. 14 letter to congressional leaders.

Under the House Republican plan, the government’s $16.4 trillion borrowing limit would be raised until May 19. The House suspension plan is accompanied by a caveat: Congress must adopt a budget resolution for the next fiscal year by April 15.

The debt limit has been raised periodically since its creation in 1917 during the presidency of Woodrow Wilson. Since 1960, Congress has raised or revised the limit 79 times, including 49 times under Republican presidents. The U.S. never has defaulted on its obligations.

Investors in U.S. Treasury bonds, who most directly bear the risk of a government default, haven’t shown alarm over the political fight in Washington. The 10-year yield was little changed at 1.84 percent at 11:39 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices.

See the full and updating report at Bloomberg.com. 

Original post is Obama Welcomes ‘De-escalation’ of Debt-Ceiling Debate: Off the Brink by Political Capital.

Photography by Isaac Brekken/Getty Images

Latino supporters of President Barack Obama had their inauguration moment tonight, when Vice President Joe Biden made a surprise appearance at a star-studded gala celebrating Hispanic artists and performers.

“One thing that happened this election is you spoke,” Biden told the cheering crowd. “The Hispanic community was a decisive factor in the outcome of not just our election but so many.”

Hispanic voters were a crucial force for the president, backing his reelection by more than 70 percent. Their overwhelming support for Democrats has prompted a wave of soul-searching for Republicans, who fear they are losing one of the country’s fastest-growing demographic groups.

“I think you underestimate your power,” said Biden. “This is your moment.”

The appearance was the first by a vice president at a Latino inaugural event, according to activist and producer Henry Munoz III.

The event at the Kennedy Center boasted a bold-faced roster of Latino superstars, featuring appearances by actress Eva Longoria, television host Mario Lopez, broadway star Chita Rivera and Ballet Hispanico.

Politics, though, was the star attraction, with speaker after speaker highlighting the growing force of the Latino community.

“It just feels good,” said Puerto Rico-American singer Marc Anthony. “Our united voice got us all here tonight and got the best man for the job in the White House.”

Latino activists have been pushing the president to take up a comprehensive immigration bill, a promise he made in his first campaign. White House officials plan to unveil a proposal in the coming weeks that includes a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants– an idea expected to face fierce opposition on Capitol Hill.

“We have a long way to go to achieve our goals,” San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro told the audience. “The voice of America’s future is in this room and it calls us forward.”

Original post is Latino Inaugural Gala: First with a VP by Political Capital.

Photograph by Scott Andrews/Pool via Bloomberg

President Barack Obama waves after speaking during his inauguration at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2009.

President Barack Obama has mused about his legacy, inviting presidential historians to dinner and urging speechwriters to pen addresses with historical sweep.

Now, he’s beginning to prepare for it, starting by embracing a new sponsor: Corporate America.

The former Illinois senator who in 2008 campaigned for president pledging to curb the role of money in politics has decided to accept unlimited corporate dollars for his second inauguration. His shift from four years ago, when he banned company funding, marks an early strategic step toward building the organization that will finance his presidential library, foundation and other post-White House aspirations, advisers say.

“With a two-term president, you have the luxury of planning time,” says Skip Rutherford, who helped raise $165 million for former President Bill Clinton’s library and works as dean of the University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service. “I would not be surprised if the Obama foundation would probably incorporate some time this year.”

For his second inauguration, Obama plans to raise $50 million from individuals and corporations. Financing his career after leaving office will cost orders of magnitude more: The price tag of his presidential library alone could easily exceed $500 million, according to presidential library experts.

Aides, who asked for anonymity to discuss strategy, say raising that amount of money will be impossible unless they build bridges to corporate donors — and give their exhausted, long-time political campaign supporters a break.

See the full story on Obama’s inaugural fundraising as the groundwork for his legacy plans at Bloomberg.com.

Original post is Obama’s Inaugural Fundraising: Groundwork for Post-Presidency by Political Capital.

Photograph by David Goldman/AP Photo

Supporters spell out "Ohio" as they cheer for Mitt Romney on Nov. 2, 2012, in West Chester, Ohio.

Just when you thought the campaign was over, it’s not.

Republican  Mitt Romney, campaigning across five states today on the eve of the Nov. 6 presidential election, is adding two Election Day stops to his itinerary.

Romney plans another lap in Cleveland, Ohio, the state which has been essential to any Republican’s hopes of winning the White House.

And he will travel to Pittsburgh, in a state that has long been considered an easy win for President Barack Obama — no Republican has carried the heavily Democratic Pennsylvania since 1988. Romney is attempting to broaden his electoral base, with polls portraying a narrowing race in Pennsylvania. A surprise victory there could help offset a win for Obama in Ohio.

The former Massachusetts governor had planned to head home to Boston tonight to await the election results. The added Election Day appearances are a measure of leaving no stones un-turned in a race which national polls portray as a statistical tie.

Original post is Romney: One More Ohio Lap, Pennsylvania Push, on Election Day by Political Capital.

Photograph by Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images

Mitt Romney boards his campaign plane in Vandalia, Ohio, on Oct. 30, 2012.

Republican Mitt Romney, his campaigning stalled by the storm called Sandy, plans to fully reengage in the presidential race tomorrow.

Romney plans three events in Florida, the biggest of all swing states, appearing with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush.

He plans to return to Virginia the following day, after canceling several events there due to the storm.

The campaign is launching advertisements next week statewide in Pennsylvania, which aides say is now in play after being considered a safe victory for Obama.

Before events in Wisconsin, the campaign invited media to cover running mate Paul Ryan’s arrival in neighboring Minnesota, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1972.

The Obama campaign called its rival’s efforts in all three states a “desperate play,” in a press release.

Original post is Romney Returning to Trail in Florida — With Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio by Political Capital.

Photograph by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Mitt Romney accepts a food donations from a supporter during a Kettering Storm Relief event on Oct. 30, 2012 in Kettering, Ohio.

With a storm still pummeling the eastern United States, Mitt Romney struggled to strike the right tone before supporters in Kettering, Ohio, today.

Standing in front of tables loaded with diapers, canned goods and bottled water, Romney jettisoned his standard stump speech — and any mention of President Barack Obama — to solicit help for those affected the storm.

“We have heavy hearts, as you know, with all the suffering going on in a major part of our country,” he said “Your generosity this morning touches my heart.”

With Obama off the campaign trail overseeing the federal emergency response to Hurricane Sandy, now a post-tropical cyclone spinning inland and leaving flooding and wreckage in its path, Romney faced the challenge of appearing presidential — and not political.

His campaign transformed a previously scheduled rally into a “storm relief event,” where they collected supplies for victims of Sandy. Last night, aides pulled down campaign signs and called supporters to tell them the tone of today’s event would sound less like a typical political rally and more like a charity event. Television screens that would normally show the campaign logo displayed instructions about how text a donation to the American Red Cross.

“No photos. No autographs,” a campaign aide shouted, as supporters filed past Romney to drop their donations on the table. The campaign, too, contributed, buying some food and other supplies with their political dollars.

Still, with just a week left before the election, politics seeped into the event, held at the same arena and with the same celebrity guests — county music star Randy Owen — as the initially-planned campaign rally. As supporters waited for the candidate to arrive, his campaign played the biographical video touting Romney’s record that often precedes his appearances at campaign rallies.

Romney, too, reminded voters of his leadership experience, recounting how he welcomed victims of Hurricane Katrina to Cape Cod as governor of Massachusetts.

“We’re looking for all the help we can get for all the families that need,” he said.

Yet most supporters, many wearing campaign pins, came seeking a different kind of help from Romney.

“This was a chance to see the next president of the United States,” said John Ward, a retiree from Springboro, Ohio. “It’s critical we get Obama out of office.”

Original post is Romney’s Storm Relief Rally — Struggling for Perfect Sandy Pitch by Political Capital.

Photograph by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Mitt Romney listens in on a conference call with advisors aboard his campaign bus en route to a campaign rally at Avon Lake High School on Oct. 29, 2012 in Avon Lake, Ohio.

In the final days of a presidential campaign, nothing is left to chance.

Motorcade rides, rallies and the rest are choreographed down to the minute by fleets of radio earpiece-wearing staffers.

So when Hurricane Sandy prompted Romney to jettison his plans for early this week, it threw his campaign apparatus into overdrive. In Boston, staffers held marathon conference calls about scheduling as they nervously watched weather reports. On the campaign plane, reporters peppered aides with questions about where they would spend the night, throwing out cities in top battleground states as guesses.

Denver wasn’t far, and out of the path of the storm? What about Florida? Or Las Vegas?

At 3pm, a staffer came back with an announcement: Romney would be spending the night in Dayton, Ohio. The rest of the schedule remained unknown, as aides waited for the storm to have its impact — both on the coast and the campaign trail.

While scheduling staffers wrestled with rebooking hotel rooms for dozens of aides and reporters, top advisers worried about what the storm would mean for their campaign. Some argued it effectively froze the game, pausing election activities for both sides and focusing voters on wall-to-wall storm coverage. Others said it could benefit Romney, by depressing the major push President Barack Obama’s team has made to get their supporters to the polls early. The most pessimistic foresaw a messy Election Day, increasing the number of absentee and provisional ballots cast and, as a result, the likelihood of recounts that could go on for weeks.

Yet almost everyone admitted that their predictions were little more than theoretical: Until they saw the severity of the storm, no know could really say with certainty how it would impact the race.

“I don’t have a clue what this will do,” said Charlie Black, a Romney adviser. “Neither does anyone else.”

Original post is Romney Resets for Sandy, Questions — Adviser: `I Don’t Have a Clue’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Charles Dharapak/AP Photo

Mitt Romney arrives to speak at an election campaign rally at the Reno Event Center in Reno, Nev., on Oct. 24, 2012.

Mitt Romney has a warning for voters worried about the economy under President Barack Obama: Things can get worse.

Seeking to maintain its recent surge of momentum in the race, Romney’s campaign today began issuing a series of dire economic predictions for what would happen if voters reelected Obama for a second term.

“The president doesn’t understand what it takes to get this economy going. He doesn’t have a plan to get jobs for Americans.,” Romney told voters in Reno, Nevada, today.

Obama, he said, will make it harder for Americans to get health care or a mortgage, worsen education, saddle students with more debt, cut Medicare for seniors, and leave home values continuing to “bump along on the basement.”

“This election is about your family,” Romney said. “And the choice we make across the country will have an enormous impact on your family.”

Romney’s fresh attack came as his top economic adviser told attendees at a conference sponsored by the Economist magazine in New York that the economy stands a good chance of facing legislated tax increases and spending cuts if Obama is reelected.

“There is a good chance, if the president wins, we go over the cliff,” said adviser Glenn Hubbard, who also serves as dean of Columbia Business School.

Original post is Obama Wins, `We Go Over the Cliff’ — Romney Campaign’s Message by Political Capital.