Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Valley Appliance employees deliver a Maytag Corp. electric stove to a customer in Princeton, Illinois.

That’s the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index for the week ended Nov. 4, the highest rating of the economy in more than four years.

The index, produced for Bloomberg by Langer Research Associates, asks people to rate the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances on a scale of plus 100 to minus 100, then averages the results of the three responses. Twenty percent of those surveyed had a positive view of the economy.

With the presidential race over and the job market seeing improvements, the sentiment may continue to rise, according to Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP.

“The underlying improvement in the trend across all major consumer confidence readings will reassert itself in coming weeks,” Brusuelas said. “That being said, given the damage from the storm, a transitory downdraft in consumer comfort should be expected.”

In the week leading up to the election, the CCI among Democrats fell to minus 23.5 from minus 22.9 the previous week. Republican sentiment decreased to minus 39.6 from minus 37.8. Sentiment among Independents, or swing-voters, rose to minus 39.7, the highest since June, from minus 40.7 the prior week.

“There was a clear political element to economic views heading into the election,” with Democrats being the least pessimistic, said Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates.

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The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, compiled by Langer Research Associates in New York, conducts telephone surveys with a random sample of 1,000 consumers 18 and older. Each week, 250 respondents are asked for their views on the economy, personal finances and buying climate; the percentage of negative responses is subtracted from the share of positive views and divided by three. The most recent reading is based on the average of responses over the previous four weeks.

The comfort index can range from 100, indicating every participant in the survey had a positive response to all three components, to minus 100, signaling all views were negative. The margin of error for the headline reading is 3 percentage points.

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: -34.4 by Political Capital.

Photograph by Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Democratic supporters celebrate as they watch President Barack Obama give his acceptance speech in Times Square, New York, early on Nov. 7, 2012.

That’s the percentage of white voters President Barack Obama won in Tuesday’s election, down from 43 percent four years ago.

In Ohio, the president did a bit better, winning 41 percent.

White voters represented 72 percent of the electorate nationally, down from 74 percent in 2008, according to the exit polls.

John McCormick and Greg Giroux explain that Obama successfully put together a cross-section of supporters to secure a second term — a coalition of minority, women and young voters.

Obama’s level of support among whites was the lowest since 1992 for a Democratic presidential candidate.

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: 39 by Political Capital.

Photograph by Jeff Morehead/The Herald-Press/AP Photo

Huntington 1A, 2 and 2A precinct voters wait in line on Nov. 6, 2012, at the Huntington County Courthouse in Huntington, Ind.

That’s the vote margin of victory for President Barack Obama  in Vigo County, Indiana, whose voters have predicted the winner of the presidency for more than half a century.

With the county seat in Terre Haute, Vigo has been right each and every time since 1956. It is the nation’s finest bellwether county of presidential prediction.

With all precincts reporting — though results are not official until later this month — the county clerk reported that Obama led Mitt Romney by 162 votes. Romney won the state overall, with Obama not making a play for it and essentially conceding Indiana early on to his challenger.

Roxana Tiron reports that since 1888 Vigo has voted for the winning candidate with only two exceptions, according to data compiled by election historian Dave Leip. Voters were wrong in 1908, when they chose William Jennings Bryan over William Howard Taft, and in 1952, when they favored Senator Adlai Stevenson from neighboring Illinois over Dwight Eisenhower.

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: 162 by Political Capital.

Photograph by Jeff Roberson/AP Photo

Sen. Claire McCaskill steps off her campaign bus to speak to the media outside Bayless Elementary School, on Oct. 31, 2012, in St. Louis County, Mo.

With Greg Giroux and Emma Fidel

President Barack Obama put it succinctly in 2010: the Democrats suffered a “shellacking” in the mid-terms, and he took the blame.

Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats in the House, their biggest since 1938. The Republican Party is expected to keep control of the House this cycle, with analysts predicting Democrats will end up short of a majority by at least a dozen seats (they would need a net gain of 25 seats to reach a 218-seat majority).

But what about the Senate?

Republicans picked up a net gain of six seats in 2010′s smack-down, which led to great optimism about their chances to take back control of the chamber in this cycle. After all, on Nov. 6 Democrats have to defend 23 of the 33 seats up for grabs. But then 2012 happened. Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine said she’d had enough. Sen. Dick Lugar lost in his primary to Indiana’s Richard Mourdock. Then Mourdock joined Rep. Todd Akin of Missouri by jumping head first into controversy with his comments about rape. Just a few of the simple reminders that you don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.

Democrats now control 53 seats. Republicans need a net gain of four to take control of the Senate if Obama wins re-election, three if Republican Mitt Romney is elected – since his vice president would break any ties. Take a look at the key Senate races to watch on Tuesday – and just how close several of them are – and decide for yourself who is likely to control the Senate after Nov. 6.

1. Arizona, Carmona v. Flake

Republican Jeff Flake, a six-term congressman and reformer from the 6th district, is facing Democrat Richard Carmona, a former U.S. Surgeon General under President George W. Bush and a decorated Vietnam War vet. The increasingly bitter race – with numerous ads each side has dismissed as false – is over the open seat of retiring Republican Sen. Jon Kyl. One recent poll has shown Flake leading, while others show Carmona in the lead, resulting in pundits predicting it may be the closest Senate race the state has seen in decades. Even support from heavy-hitters – Romney and Sens .John McCain and Kyl for Flake, and Bill Clinton and Robert Redford for Carmona – hasn’t translated into a definitive lead for either candidate. Throw in a possible spoiler, Libertarian Marc Victor, and the race remains too close to call.

2. Connecticut, McMahon v. Murphy

Connecticut hasn’t chosen a Republican senator in more than 30 years, and has never had a female senator. With former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon inching closer to Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy in the polls, the battle for Sen. Joseph Lieberman’s seat has become another race to watch. As if that weren’t dramatic enough, Murphy is hitting McMahon by painting her as someone who “demeaned women” at WWE and sides “with the most extreme Republicans to deny women health care.” McMahon, who lost her first Senate bid in 2010, has called Murphy’s accusations “totally false” and “pretty desperate,” and defended WWE’s health policies. The state recently moved into the “tossup” column from “leans blue” on Cook Political Report.

3. Indiana, Donnelly v. Mourdock

Indiana is a Republican-leaning state where the unexpectedly close Senate race is giving party strategists some heartburn. Sen. Richard Lugar would have been a near-prohibitive favorite over Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, who was given the gift of a Lugar loss to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the spring primary. Then during an Oct. 23 televised debate, Mourdock created a controversy as well as an unexpected opening for Donnelly, saying a pregnancy as a result of rape is “something God intended.” Days before, Romney had cut a television ad for Mourdock; he has stood by his support for the candidate. With Obama likely to lose Indiana, Democrats are arguing Mourdock’s views are out of step with the state while Republicans are doing everything they can to tie Donnelly to the administration.

4. Maine, Dill v. King v. Summers

Republican Olympia Snowe’s unexpected retirement announcement in February spawned a competitive race with three candidates. The favorite is Angus King, the state’s independent governor from 1995 to 2003, who bemoans partisan strife in today’s Senate. Republican groups backing Maine Secretary of State Charlie Summers have attacked King, a sign that they expect him to caucus with Senate Democrats if he wins. A Republican super-PAC has even run ads praising the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Cynthia Dill, who’s running a distant third in polls that show most Democrats backing King. Republicans want enough Democrats to shift to Dill from King to allow Summers to win with a plurality. According to Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, King is maintaining a comfortable lead in polls.

5. Massachusetts, Brown v. Warren

Character attacks and race-fueled controversies are defining this closely-followed and unusually expensive Massachusetts race. Republican incumbent Scott Brown is up against Democrat Elizabeth Warren for the late Sen.Ted Kennedy’s seat. Brown, a former state lawmaker, has questioned Warren’s claims of Native American heritage and consumer advocacy, saying she was a “hired gun” for corporations. Warren, a Harvard Law professor, has defended her background and fired back at Brown, arguing that his record does not support his claims of bipartisanism. While Brown led in polls through the summer, the state is now leaning toward Warren by a few points in most polls.

6. Missouri, Akin v. McCaskill

Two words effectively scuttled Akin’s campaign to unseat Sen. Claire McCaskill, who had been one of the most vulnerable senators seeking re-election this year. Akin told a Missouri television interviewer in August that “legitimate rape” rarely leads to pregnancy, igniting a storm of criticism and making him a pariah to high-profile party leaders, as well as national Republican groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Karl Rove’s Crossroads groups, which then declined to spend any money on his behalf. However, the source of a several hundred thousand dollar, last-minute ad buy in the state benefitting Akin hasn’t been disclosed. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has called on the NRSC to disclose if they funded the ads.

Akin may keep it close, given Missouri’s Republican lean in presidential elections, though it’s hard to see a path to victory for him with McCaskill now favored to keep the seat. But her campaign isn’t taking any chances, airing television ads and releasing statements attacking Akin for some of his more controversial votes.

7. Montana, Rehberg v. Tester

Jon Tester is the most vulnerable Democratic senator, partly because he’s sharing a ballot in a year when Obama is likely to lose Montana. Tester also has an experienced and determined Republican opponent in Denny Rehberg, who’s represented Montana’s at-large district for a dozen years and was lieutenant governor and a Senate candidate before that. Rehberg has regularly attacked Tester for siding too frequently with Obama administration initiatives, including on the 2010 health-care law. Tester says Rehberg backs a “voucher” system to overhaul Medicare. The candidates and outside groups have aired ads tens of thousands of times in Montana, where it isn’t prohibitively expensive to campaign. RCP polling average has the two men virtually tied.

8. Nevada, Berkley v. Heller

In one of the most contentious races this year, Dean Heller and allied Republican groups have attacked Shelly Berkley’s ethical behavior and her vote for the 2010 health-care overhaul, while the congresswoman has been critical of the senator’s votes for a budget blueprint proposed by Republican vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan that would overhaul Medicare. Heller and Berkley, who served together in the House, are competing for the attention of voters bombarded from messages from Obama and Romney, who are campaigning full-bore in the this swing state. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who’s built up a formidable political network in Nevada over the past few decades, has an interest in helping Berkley win that is both parochial and political, as the outcome will help determine whether he keeps his title as the top-ranking senator.

9. North Dakota, Berg v. Heitkamp

That Democrats have a 50-50 shot of keeping retiring Democrat Kent Conrad’s seat in North Dakota, a state likely to vote Republican for president for the 12th straight election, is testimony to how candidate quality matters. Even Republican strategists acknowledge that Heidi Heitkamp, the state’s former Attorney General and a breast cancer survivor, is a popular figure in North Dakota, and she’s currently leading in polls by a few points. She’s run ads emphasizing her independence, saying she breaks with Obama to support a balanced-budget amendment and the Keystone XL oil pipeline and to oppose a cap-and-trade system to curb carbon emissions. The Republican nominee, one-term at-large Representative Rick Berg, is trying to link her to Obama and his 2010 health-care overhaul.

10. Ohio, Brown v. Mandel

Ohio is once again in the national spotlight as a swing state, and probable decider in the presidential race – and is inundated with television ads by as many as 89 outside groups, including many that hide the identities of their donors. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is the overwhelming target, being accused in many of those ads of joining Obama in waging a “war on coal.” This spending has helped to give a boost to Brown’s opponent, State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who has raised $14.5 million to Brown’s $20.5 million, but outside spending has favored Mandel about 4 to 1. Most polls, though, show an edge for Brown in the race.

11. Virginia, Allen v. Kaine

In this battle between former governors, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are running an unusual race. The two Virginians both left office with high approval ratings, both have messages on the economy and government that are almost identical to their parties’ presidential candidates’ and both had polled at about 46 percent – that is, until Kaine jumped up to 53 percent last month, according to a Washington Post poll. However, like the presidential race, the polls have tightened recently to within a point, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average. The Virginia Senate seat may be decided by a small percentage of independent voters and by Republicans’ ability to win over female voters, again mirroring the presidential race in the state.

12. Wisconsin, Baldwin v. Thompson

A generation separates Tommy Thompson, who turns 71 on Nov. 19, from Rep. Tammy Baldwin, 50. Thompson is one of Wisconsin’s most enduring politicians, with political service dating to the mid-1960s and including a 14-year run as governor. Yet he hasn’t appeared on a Wisconsin ballot since 1998, when Baldwin was first elected to Congress, and he made a short-lived bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. Democrats have attacked Thompson’s work as a lobbyist since leaving political life. Republicans say Baldwin’s voting record is too party-line even for Wisconsin. Polls have Baldwin up by a few points, and if she wins, she would become the first lesbian ever elected to the Senate.

Original post is Senate Races to Watch Tuesday by Political Capital.

Photograph by Victor J. Blue/ Bloomberg

Shoppers on Fifth Avenue in New York.

With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (CCI) continued to rise this week, reaching its highest level in six months.

Up 12.8 points in just the past two months, the weekly CCI asks Americans to rate the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

Compiled for Bloomberg by Langer Research Associates, the index ranges from minus 100 to plus 100. U.S. households’ views on the economy were the best since early May, with the index rising to minus 34.6 in the period ended Oct. 21.

While the gains in the index may be helped by the improving housing market, lower gas prices and a declining unemployment rate, the upcoming election may also be shaping Americans’ perceptions of the economy. For Democrats, the CCI rose to minus 22.1, the best since mid-April and 20.4 points higher than a low in mid-August. Confidence among Republicans fell to minus 37.2, a four-point drop from just one week ago.

The findings illustrate how Americans may be perceiving the economy through the prism of politics. For 31 straight weeks, the CCI has been higher for Democrats than for Republicans. The index is also is up 10.6 points for independents to minus 41.6, their best since late June.

“Such gains in anticipation of presidential elections are not the norm,” said Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates. “While its improved trajectory could potentially help Barack Obama, the CCI remains far lower than its levels when incumbents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton won re-election.”

Langer also points out that no similar trend has occurred in the weeks leading up to any of  the past six presidential elections (the index began in late 1985).

“It’s closer to its level two weeks from the 1992 election (minus 48) when George H.W. Bush lost a second term,” Langer said. Just one pre-election reading was worse — when Barack Obama first ran in 2008, it was at minus 50.

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The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, compiled by Langer Research Associates in New York, conducts telephone surveys with a random sample of 1,000 consumers 18 and older. Each week, 250 respondents are asked for their views on the economy, personal finances and buying climate; the percentage of negative responses is subtracted from the share of positive views and divided by three. The most recent reading is based on the average of responses over the previous four weeks.

The comfort index can range from 100, indicating every participant in the survey had a positive response to all three components, to minus 100, signaling all views were negative. The margin of error for the headline reading is 3 percentage points.

Original post is Consumer Comfort Rises to Highest Level in Six Months by Political Capital.

Photograph by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Clint Eastwood at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Tampa, Florida.

He’s given dozens of memorable performances on film.

Plus one now infamous performance talking to an empty chair.

Now Clint Eastwood is appearing in an ad supporting Mitt Romney.

Scheduled to begin running today in several battleground states including Virginia and Ohio, the American Crossroads ad “At Stake” is narrated by Eastwood and begins with moody, melancholic music over shots of an empty factory and workers standing in line.

“In the last few years, America has been knocked down,” the ad begins. “Twenty-three million can’t find full time work. And we borrow $4 billion every single day, much of it from China,” Eastwood warns. “We need someone who can turn it around fast, and that man is Mitt Romney.”

The ad concludes with Eastwood talking directly to the camera, saying, “There’s not much time left, and the future of our country is at stake.”

The last time Eastwood got involved in such a high-profile way in politics, it was at the Republican National Convention in Tampa back in August. On the night Romney accepted his party’s nomination, Eastwood held an entire conversation with an empty chair, which he pretended was occupied by President Obama. The result was a Twitter storm, including a popular hashtag #eastwooding, and new accounts like @InvisibleObama with tens of thousands of followers. Polling ranked it among the key highlights of the convention.

Check out some other great digital heckling moments from the campaign.

Original post is Clint Talks to Camera, Not an Empty Chair, in Ad for Romney by Political Capital.

Photograph by Scott Legato/Getty Images

Congressman Paul Ryan at Oakland University Athletic Center on October 8, 2012 in Rochester, Michigan.

Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan is upbeat after last night’s debate in which a pointed Ryan held his ground against an especially forceful Vice President Joe Biden.

“I feel great,” the Wisconsin congressmen told reporters as he headed to breakfast in Lexington, Kentucky this morning.

Polls came to varied conclusions about the debate’s winner. A CNN poll found the candidates virtually tied among register voters while CBS showed Biden the clear winner among undecided voters.

Ryan, though, had a less polarizing question on his mind this morning: Pancakes or waffles?

Original post is Ryan’s Post-Debate Morning: ‘I Feel Great’ by Political Capital.

Original post is Political Capital TV: Barbour Says Romney Must Focus on Obama Failings by Political Capital.

Photograph by Whitney Curtis/Getty Images

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Rep. Todd Akin on Sept. 24, 2012 in Kirkwood, Missouri.

First Newt Gingrich. Now Rick Santorum and Jim DeMint.

These are the latest high-profile Republicans to put their support behind Missouri Republican Todd Akin.

“Todd Akin is a principled conservative who is committed to winning and fighting for freedom in the U.S. Senate,” said DeMint, the junior senator from South Carolina, in a joint statement issued with Santorum, former Pennsylvania senator and presidential hopeful. “If Republicans are to win back the Senate and stop President Obama’s liberal agenda, we must defeat Senator Claire McCaskill,” the statement said.

Yesterday the embattled Senate candidate confirmed he was staying in the race, and got the backing of former House Speaker and presidential candidate Gingrich, who campaigned with him. Akin has not wavered in his battle, even after Mitt Romney and other party leaders urged him to abandon his efforts to unseat Sen. Claire McCaskill, a first-term Democrat. after a televised interview in which Akin said that “legitimate rape” rarely results in pregnancy. Yesterday was the last day he could get a court order to withdraw.

“I think the money’s going to be coming,” Akin said at his campaign stop yesterday. He also said he believes other national Republican groups will come back to support him in the final days leading up to the election. After Akin’s controversial comments, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Crossroads GPS stopped spending any money on the contest.

Akin also has been endorsed by one other one-time Republican presidential hopeful, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Original post is Akin Endorsed by Santorum, DeMint by Political Capital.

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Delegates from Ohio at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Tampa.

No one disputes Ohio is a battleground state, and key for both President Barack Obama’s and challenger Mitt Romney’s path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

And if Ohio is the ultimate bellwether state, Lake County may be the best bellwether for Ohio. As the Cleveland Plain Dealer pointed out, no county in Ohio has more closely matched the statewide voting pattern since 1960.

Bloomberg’s Matthew Dowd, who served as a campaign strategist for President George W. Bush and is now an independent, highlights why this county just outside of Cleveland is so critical in our series “Bellwethers: A 50-County Election.”

As Dowd points out, not only has the economy improved significantly in Lake County in the past few years, unemployment is 6.2 percent, down 1.6 percentage points since Obama took office and well below the national average of 8.1 percent. This bodes well for the president’s chances there come November, even though Obama barely eked out a win in Lake against John McCain in 2008. He won the county by only 1,013 votes.

Based on the latest U.S. Census data estimates, Ohio has about 11.5 million residents, 84 percent of whom are white, 12 percent black, and about 3 percent Hispanic. A wealthy county, Lake is also less diverse, with whites at nearly 94 percent. The median household income of $54,896 is above the state average of $47,358, and the number of people living below the poverty level is below the state average.

Dowd notes that the region that includes the county was part of the U.S. that was hardest hit during the recession, but also one that has recovered the fastest.  Alongside the recovering auto industry and related manufacturing, the area has also benefited from being a great place for people to buy real estate and to open businesses, according to Dowd.

Next time we focus on New Mexico, just outside of Albuquerque. And take a look at some of the other posts from our Bellwether Series, focusing on Hamilton County, Ohio, Orange County, Florida, and Fairfax County, Virginia.

Original post is Ohio Bellwether Lake County Mirrors Statewide Voting Patterns by Political Capital.