Photograph by Paul J. Richards/AFP/GettyImages

A construction worker hauls lumber during the framing of a new townhouse in Chantilly, Virginia.

Virginians could be forgiven for feeling a bit schizophrenic about their state’s economy: Two top Republicans have delivered seemingly opposite messages in recent television ads.

A few months ago, Governor Bob McDonnell appeared in an upbeat ad to deliver a reassuring message: “Jobs and opportunity are thriving again,” he says, smiling. “Virginia is growing strong, and so is our future.”

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney pours cold water over McDonnell’s optimism in ads his campaign just began airing.

“Here in Virginia,” a female narrator says, as a black-and-white photograph of Barack Obama is shown, “we’re not better off under President Obama.”

The mixed messaging shows the challenge Romney could face in key battleground states such as Virginia, Florida and Ohio, where Republican governors want to highlight economic progress even as the party’s presidential candidate tries to make the case that Obama’s policies have stood in the way of growth.

McDonnell’s “Opportunity Virginia” political action committee aired the 30-second “Growing Strong” ad 467 times on TV stations across the state from April 25 to May 8, spending an estimated $172,870, according to New York-based Kantar Media’s CMAG, a firm that tracks advertising.

It begins with a woman saying, “Virginia is growing strong again.” Other people identified as residents of the state reiterate the message as positive economic statistics are displayed on the screen.

Cue the ominous music in Romney’s new ads.

Three Virginia spots are part of a state-specific buy that began over the weekend. Each version opens with Romney addressing the Republican National Convention on Aug. 30 in Tampa, Florida. “This president cannot tell us that you are better off today than we he took office,” Romney says.

The Romney campaign says its ads don’t necessarily negate what McDonnell posited in his earlier spots.

“Despite the positive economic progress Governor McDonnell and Lieutenant Governor Bolling have made, there’s only so much that can be done to offset the cascade of job-killing regulations and hostility toward job creators emanating from President Obama’s White House,” Curt Cashour, Romney’s Virginia spokesman, said in a statement. “The fact is that President Obama’s policies are inhibiting — and in some cases blocking — job creation in the Commonwealth.”

Virginia’s employment increased 1.3 percent between the first quarter of 2009 — during which Obama took office –and the start of this year, according to the most recent data available in the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States. Personal income has risen 11 percent in the same period, BEES shows.

The economic health of Virginia — like that of every state except North Dakota and Michigan — has worsened between the first quarter of 2009 and the same period in 2012, according to BEES.

Original post is Virginia is for Lovers — and Haters — of the Economy by Political Capital.

Photograph by Matthew Staver/Bloomberg

Job seekers in Denver, Colorado.

The unemployment rate rose last month in every battleground state in the presidential election except Ohio.

Employers still added jobs in more than half of the electoral swing states, indicating progress in local economies. Competition for job openings heightened as more people resumed looking for work.

The trend, captured in state-level data released today by the U.S. Labor Department, parallels changes in the nationwide employment picture. National unemployment rose to 8.3 percent in July even as employers added 163,000 jobs during the month.

In an election dominated by economic concerns, President Barack Obama has benefited from better local conditions in many of the states where he and Republican Mitt Romney have concentrated their efforts.

Moody’s Analytics Inc., which forecasts presidential election results based solely on state-by-state economic data and past voting behavior, predicted Obama winning 303 electoral votes earlier this month.

A candidate needs to capture 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency. The 12 swing states, which have historically been competitive or are targeted by one of the campaigns, have a combined total of 151 votes. Not all of them will be in play in November.

The Labor Department report shows swing-state voters confronted a tighter job market in July, except for Ohio, where the unemployment rate was steady at 7.2 percent. Ohio’s economy has been aided by the rebound of the auto industry and a surge in oil and natural gas development through the use of a technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.

Ohio was one of only six states that did not experience a rise in its unemployment rate.

Ohio ranks sixth in overall economic health, according to the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States.

See the state-by-state jobless count and the potential political impact of it at Bloomberg News.

Original post is Swing-State Jobless Rates Rise by Political Capital.

Photograph by Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Photo

President Barack Obama prepares to board Air Force One to Ohio for campaign stops in Mansfield and Akron.

In Ohio, where President Barack Obama is campaigning for reelection today and where a new poll shows him holding an advantage over Republican Mitt Romney, there is room to move between now and November.

While 87 percent of the likely voters surveyed by Quinnipiac University, CBS and the New York Times said their minds are made up, 12 percent said they might change before the Nov. 6 election. Similar room for movement was registered in the group’s polling of likely voters in Florida and Pennsylvania, also leaning toward Obama over Romney — with 10-12 percent saying they might change their minds.

With the economy ranked a runaway No. 1 in issues that matter to voters, the economy has improved in Ohio since Obama’s inauguration — the state ranked sixth in overall economic health in the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States.

There’s no statistical difference between the percentages of Obama and Romney supporters who say they might still be convinced to switch, suggesting that both the president and his challenger have some work to do in Ohio.

Obama is more favorably viewed than Romney is in Ohio, the survey finds, with 51 percent holding a favorable view of the president, 45 percent unfavorable. The presumptive Republican nominee’s ratings are upside down: 43 percent holding an unfavorable view, 40 percent favorable. (Though the margin of error in this poll, 2.8 percent in Ohio, makes these questions somewhat of a draw.)

Asked if Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like them, 55 percent of Ohio’s likely voters say yes, 43 percent no. Asked the same question about Romney, 55 percent say no, 38 percent yes.

However, opinion is divided over the job that Obama is doing as president: 48 percent of all likely voters voicing approval, 48 percent disapproval.

Enthusiasm for the president among his supporters is running higher in Ohio, the survey shows: 60 percent of Obama’s supporters strongly favoring him and 42 percent of Romney’s supporters strongly favoring him.

The economy stands out as the issue of most importance to voters there: 48 percent say so. Twenty percent identify health care, 12 percent the federal budget deficit.

And opinion is divided over whether the economy is improving in Ohio — 33 percent say it’s getting better, 26 percent worse, and 40 percent say it’s staying about the same.

Ohio’s overall economic health has improved since the first quarter of 2009, when Obama was inaugurated — the state ranking sixth in overall economic health — the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States shows.

Personal income has grown by 3.7 from the first quarter of 2009 through the second quarter of this year, employment has improved and the equity index of companies based in Ohio or with major operations there has grown by 10 percent, BEES shows.

Obama is making a case that, however slowly the economy is improving, 40-plus months of job growth is a trend moving in the right direction. Romney is making the case that the president’s policies aren’t working.

The numbers in Ohio would suggest that Obama has a more receptive audience for his argument in a state that has voted the way the nation has since the 1960s, but one in 10 voters are willing to listen to both candidates.

Original post is Ohio: One in 10 Open to Persuasion by Political Capital.

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Employees work on fiberglass fabric in a wind turbine blade mold made for General Electric Co.'s renewable energy business at TPI Composites Inc.'s manufacturing facility in Newton, Iowa.

Colorado and Iowa:

The stages for Republican Mitt Romney’s campaign for president, and for President Barack Obama’s campaign for re-election today.

Romney plans a “town hall”-styled event at Central High School in Grand Junction, which generally opens a candidate to questions from his audience. Obama plans to speak on the economy at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids, as well as visit the home of Jason and Ali McLaughlin to talk about his plan for continuing Bush-era tax cuts for families earning less than $250,000 a year.

Both states backed Obama for election in 2008 — the president carrying Colorado by 9 percentage points, Iowa by 9.5 points. Both states, which also helped former President George W. Bush win re-election in 2004, are considered prime targets in this year’s battle over a dozen or fewer swing-voting states.

Yet the economic picture of the two states, in an election contest rooted in the economy, offers a contrast this time around.

Colorado’s unemployment, 8.1 percent at the last count of the states in April, was down from a peak of 9 percent in November 2010. Its overall economic health has declined by 11.2 percent from the first quarter of 2009, when Obama was inaugurated, to the first quarter of 2012, according to the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States. Home prices are off 7.1 percent during the president’s term, though personal income has increased by 10.5 percent and employment has improved by 0.8 percent.

Iowa’s unemployment rested at 5.1 percent in April, well below the national average, and down from a peak of 6.3 percent in November 2010– that’s as bad as it got during the worst recession since the 1930s. Its overall economic health is off by 7.4 percent from first quarter 2009 to first quarter 2012, the BEES index shows, with personal income up 12.5 percent and home prices about where they were four years ago.

In other words, things are looking better today in Iowa than they are in Colorado, and relatively speaking, better for Obama in Iowa now than at the time of his election.

All of which offers Romney a stage, in Colorado, for saying the president’s policies aren’t working, and Obama a stage, in Iowa, with a family that stands to benefit from his tax plans, to say his is the way forward.

Original post is Obama’s Iowa Stage, Romney’s Colorado Platform: Different Pictures by Political Capital.

Photograph by Scott Eells/Bloomberg

A Ford Motor Co. Mustang at the 2012 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) in Detroit.

As a dear old newsman once asked, “Ever wonder why?”

In an election contest dominated by the state of the American economy — with unemployment hovering above 8 percent nationally, and voters nationwide voicing mixed approval for President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy — how is it that the president is running so well in the dozen swing states that will determine the outcome?

The economy, generally, is doing better there.

Another newsman, Bloomberg’s Mike Dorning, has reported on this well.

And today’s poll of 12 swing states made us think about the latest data here.

Start with Virginia, where unemployment stood at 5.6 percent in April, the last month for which state statistics are available. Even at its worst, during the deepest recession since the 1930s, Virginia’s unemployment peaked at 7.3 percent in January 2010. The state’s overall economic health — as measured by a composite index tracked by the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States — was fairly steady last year, down by just 0.2 percent in 2011.

Look at Michigan: unemployment at 8.5 percent in April, yet down from a peak of 14.2 percent in February 2010. Personal income in the state was up 4 percent last year, a component of the BEES index.

Florida: unemployment at 8.6 percent, yet down from a peak of 11.5 percent in February 2010.

New Hampshire: 5 percent unemployment — and, even at its peak in January 201, 6.7 percent .

Iowa: 5.1 percent unemployment — even at its peak, in November 2010, 6.3 percent.

It’s not a completely rosy picture, the composite picture of the swing states. But overall, it’s a more positive picture than the one portrayed in the last monthly report of the Department of Labor on June 1, which showed unemployment inching up nationally. And, in an election determined by the electoral votes of several key swing states — where Obama holds an 8 percentage point advantage over Republican Mitt Romney in today’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, and an edge in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania in today’s Quinnipiac University poll — the economic data are noteworthy.

This is the swing-state story, by the numbers:

Colorado: 8.1 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 9 percent in November 2010. The BEES measure of overall economic health improved by 1.6 percent last year.

Florida: 8.6 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 11.5 percent in February 2010. Economic health down 1 percent last year, with home prices a big drag, down 5.7 percent.

Iowa: 5.1 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 6.3 percent in November 2010. Economic health up .3 percent last year.

Michigan: 8.5 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 14.2 percent in August 2009. Economic health up 4 percent last year.

Nevada: 11.6 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 14 percent in October 2010. Economic health up 2 percent last year.

New Hampshire: 5 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 6.7 percent in January 2010. Economic health down .9 percent last year.

New Mexico: 6.7 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 8 percent in October 2010. Economic health down 7.5 percent last year, though personal income was up 4 percent.

North Carolina: 9.4 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 11.4 percent in February 2010. Economic health down 3.8 percent last year, though personal income was up 4.2 percent.

Ohio: 7.3 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 10.6 percent in January 2010. Economic health up 1.6 percent last year.

Pennsylvania: 7.4 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 8.7 percent in March 2010. Economic health down .3 percent last year.

Virginia: 5.6 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 7.3 percent in January 2010. Economic health down .2 percent.

Wisconsin: 6.8 percent unemployment in April, down from a peak of 9.2 percent in January 2010. Economic health down 3.2 percent last year, though personal income was up 4.5 percent.

Original post is Swing-State Economy Shown in Polls by Political Capital.

Photograph by Ty Wright/Bloomberg

Crash test dummy hands labeled before being packaged for spare parts at the Humanetics Innovative Solutions facility in Huron, Ohio.

Ohio.

Historically, a must-win for a Republican presidential candidate. In practice, a big get for a Democrat.

It’s also No. 5 on another important list, Bloomberg’s State of the States — read on.

Both President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney are there today — appearing at virtually the same time this afternoon. The president will deliver what the White House has clearly identified as a campaign speech about the economy at Cuyahoga Community College in Cleveland. Romney will campaign in Cincinnati.

They will play against an improving backdrop in a state that shed manufacturing jobs. Ohio ranked seventh in improving economic health during the past year, by the count of the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States.  Counting from the first quarter of 2009 through the last quarter of 2011, tracking Obama’s presidency, Ohio ranked fifth in economic health. Its mortgage delinquency last year, it rate ranked 13th, while employment growth ranked 32nd.

So there is fuel for either candidate’s fire today — from the president’s point of view, an economy improving yet in need of more work;  from Romney’s perspective, a failed attempt to make things better. And Obama doesn’t get a do-over, the Republicans say.

The Republican National Committee walks into the day with a Web-video proclaiming: “Sorry President Obama, President’s Don’t Get Mulligans.” It starts with a 2009 clip of the president saying: “If I don’t have this done in three years, then this is going to be a one-term proposition. It closes with five repeats of a missed put on a green with words for what didn’t work — an $825 billion stimulus, a “health care takeover” and a lot of speeches.

The party ad overlooks the fact that there is wide consensus surrounding the temporary impact of the stimulus — that it staved off a steeper decline, and was responsible for saving or creating at least a million jobs, the actual number a matter of dispute.

Original post is Obama, Romney Tackle Ohio: No. 5 by Political Capital.