Photograph by Charles Sykes/AP Photo

Jonathan Alter

Journalist Jonathan Alter and political consultant Mandy Grunwald met at Harvard in the 1970s.

At a party last night at Grunwald’s Georgetown home, Alter recalled the “towering” impression Grunwald made at Adams House.

“She was more than the queen of hearts,” said Alter, a former columnist for Bloomberg View and now political analyst for NBC. “She was the queen of clubs. She wore all black before it was cool.”

Grunwald organized the event in honor of Alter’s new book, “The Center Holds: Obama and His Enemies,” a deeply-sourced recap of last year’s election.

Sens. Amy Klobuchar, Wisconsin Democrat; Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut Democrat; Dick Durbin, Illinois Democrat; and Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island Democrat, were present.

Among Alter’s and Grunwald’s Harvard classmates attending: David McKean, director of policy planning at the State Department, Tamera Luzzato, senior vice president of government relations at Pew Charitable Trusts, Elissa Powell, Jonathan Silver with Third Way, and John W. Anderson with the Podesta Group.

Sliders and pigs in blankets were served as guests meandered in Grunwald’s hydrangea-filled garden.

Earlier in the day consultants Tammy Haddad and Hilary Rosen hosted a luncheon for Alter at the Jefferson Hotel with  Sarah Feinberg, a communications executive for Facebook, and Mindy Finn, a strategic partnerships leader for Twitter, as guests.

Follow Stephanie Green and Bloomberg Muse on Twitter at @stephlgreen and @bloombergmuse.

Original post is Altered Estates: ‘Common Ground’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Michael Bonfigli/The Christian Science Monitor via Getty Images

Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of The Gallup Poll, in Washington, DC

Among the failures and successes of polling in the 2012 presidential election contest, the most noteworthy was the Gallup Poll getting it wrong.

Frank Newport, editor in chief of Gallup, has undertaken an examination of the methodology that led the longtime and esteemed polling organization to call the race for Republican Mitt Romney. He will hold a news conference this morning at the National Press Club in Washington to release his findings.

He rolled out a preview this morning on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe:”

The biggest problem, Newport says, was the “screen” his organization used to report the results of its findings among likely voters. Gallup’s polling showed President Barack Obama winning among registered voters, and, of course, he did.

“We over-corrected,” Gallup said of the likely voter screen.

The inquiry, conducted with the help of experts at the University of Michigan,  also found three other problems:

– The sampling model used to select land-line telephones for dialing — they comprised 50 percent of the surveying.

–The manner in which people were asked to identify their race or ethnicity.

– Overweighted calling in certain time zones, the Central and Mountain regions.

Working with Michigan, Newport says, he is using the Virginia governor’s race that will be settled in November as something of a laboratory to ensure Gallup gets it right going forward.

Original post is Gallup’s ‘Likely’ Story: ‘Over-Corrected’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and his wife Ann Romney greet supporters during a campaign rally at George Mason University on November 5, 2012 in Fairfax, Virginia.

Mitt Romney hit the “panic button” at about 8 pm on Election Day 2012, according to wife Ann Romney.

“We expected to win,” she said.

But Karl Rove, whose super-PAC had invested millions in the failing election campaigns of other party candidates, told him “Don’t give up.”

This is the wife of the 2012 Republican nominee for president’s readout of the night her husband lost his race with President Barack Obama, as Ann Romney recalled it all on CBS News’ “This Morning,” uh, this morning.

Mitt Romney isn’t angry about his defeat, she said, but rather frustrated. And the campaign, of course, was an “extraordinary experience.”

Love reading Mark Knoller’s scrolling tweets, he of the CBS News fold:

“We expected to win,” says Ann Romney. But looking back at Election Day, she says “we started getting a little worried” about 6PM that day.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) May 30, 2013

On @cbsthismorning, Ann Romney says she has “no regrets” about her husband’s campaign for president. Aside from losing.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) May 30, 2013

As for life now for her and Mitt, Mrs Romney says it’s “wonderful.” “Full of joy,” she says in interview on @cbsthismorning

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) May 30, 2013

Original post is Ann Romney: ‘We Expected to Win’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Technicians stand in front of a large television screen as it displays footage of cookies bearing the image of President Barack Obama prior to an election night rally in Chicago, Illinois, on Nov. 6, 2012.

Six months after the 2012 presidential election, you’d think we’d know for sure how many votes President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney received.

It turns out, though, that exact numbers are still elusive because of late revisions to some statewide vote totals.

Colorado election officials updated their statewide total on May 3 to give Obama one more vote, for 1,323,102 total. During a review of election returns, state election officials discovered that the Saguache County elections office didn’t upload its amended vote totals to a vote-reporting website.

North Dakota’s elections office revised its totals on April 23, according to its website. The revision subtracted 139 votes from Obama and 157 votes from Romney in Walsh County, according to a before-and-after comparison by Political Capital, which sent e-mails to state and county election officials that haven’t yet been returned.

In California, Romney received 4,839,956 votes instead of 4,839,958 as originally reported.  The two-vote change was owed to Calaveras County amending its total, according to a document state election officials released April 10.

New York election officials released an amended vote count on April 9, according to their website. Obama won the state overwhelmingly, and none of the changes in any state affected the outcome.

For those of you keeping score at home, Political Capital’s current tally is 65,910,299 for Obama and 60,932,636 for Romney.

Subject to change, of course.

Original post is Obama, Romney Vote Totals Still Changing by Political Capital.

Photograph by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Rosemary Edwards of Austin, Texas and Steve Monisteri talk with Texas Gov. Rick Perry during the third day of the Republican National Convention.

Rick Perry offers some humility and blames a sore back when you talk to him about his 2012 presidential bid. He also sounds a bit like he’s thinking about running again.

In a Bloomberg News interview in Chicago, Perry said he expects to make his decision about a 2016 run “by the end of the year.” First, he said, he needs to decide whether to run again for Texas governor, a decision he plans to make this summer.

“If you’re going to run for president, you’ve got to start at least two years early — at least,” he said during a trip to Chicago to try to woo Illinois businesses to his state.

“You can’t parachute in, in August,” he said of his late-starting bid for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination last year. “We could have won, but we had to do everything perfect. Needless to say, we didn’t do everything perfect.”

Perry also pointed to the back surgery he had shortly before announcing his presidential bid.

“If you’re going to run for the presidency,” he said, “I highly recommend you don’t have major back surgery six weeks before.”

Original post is Rick Perry’s Two Reasons for 2012 — Remembering Both of Them by Political Capital.

Photograph by Alex Wong/Getty Images

Former Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney acknowledges the crowd after he was introduced by South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley during the second day of the 40th annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on March 15, 2013 in National Harbor, Maryland.

Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, goffered an emotional thank you today as he struck a positive tone for his party in his first public speech since losing the election to President Barack Obama.

As he recalled some of the people he met on the campaign trail, Romney told those gathered at the Conservative Political Action Conference near Washington that they shouldn’t be pessimistic amid talk of the party’s demographic challenges.

“We’ve lost races before, in the past, but those setbacks prepared us for larger victories,” he said. “It’s up to us to make sure that we learn from our mistakes — and my mistakes — and that we take advantage of that learning to make sure that we take back the nation.”

Romney’s speech was warmly received by those at CPAC, a conference sponsored by the Washington-based American Conservative Union, which advocates for less government spending. He received several standing ovations.

“We have not lost our way,” Romney said. “Our nation is full of aspirations and hungry for new solutions.”

Romney, a onetime Massachusetts governor, pointed to Republican governors, including some who weren’t invited to the event such as New Jersey’s Chris Christie, as being models for the party as it moves forward.

“I would urge us all to learn lessons that come from some of our greatest success stories, and that’s 30 Republican governors across the country,” Romney said. “These governors have shown that they’re able to reach across the aisle, offer innovative solutions and that they are willing to take the heat.”

For the full report, see Bloomberg.com. 

Original post is Romney: ‘We Have Not Lost Our Way’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

President Barack Obama looks over the crowd as he prepares to leave the stage after making an acceptance speech during an election night rally in Chicago on Nov. 7, 2012.

One notable characteristic of the 2012 presidential election was how President Barack Obama ran up big vote margins in large metropolitan areas, overcoming Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s edge in lesser-populated regions.

Obama outran Romney by about 5 million votes despite winning 692 of 3,113 counties or their equivalents, according to official election data compiled and analyzed by Political Capital. Romney won 2,421 counties, or 78 percent of the total, though he carried just seven of the 82 counties that cast at least 300,000 votes. (The data don’t include Alaska, which doesn’t have counties, or the District of Columbia).

Take Nevada, where Obama won by 7 percentage points while carrying just two of 17 counties. One of the two was Clark, which includes Las Vegas and its suburbs and cast 68 percent of the statewide vote. Obama won Clark by 15 points. The other Nevada county Obama won was Washoe, the state’s second-biggest county in and around Reno.

Looking at the disparity another way: Obama won Los Angeles County, California, the nation’s most populous county, by 1,331,570 votes. That margin was greater than Romney’s cumulative vote margin in 1,195 of the counties he carried.

Original post is Obama: 5 Million Vote Win With 22% of Counties by Political Capital.

Photograph by CBS News

President Barack Obama sat with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for an interview for CBS’s “60 Minutes” program.

Considering how hard Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fought for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2008, their avowed close friendship today, after four years of Clinton’s service to the Obama administration, is remarkable enough that it raises the question: How long can this last?

The 2016 presidential election campaign, after all, is not that far away, and some of Obama’s other friends may have eyes on that.

“I have to ask that question,” Steve Kroft told Obama and Clinton in his interview of the two for CBS’s News “60 Minutes” airing tonight. “I mean, come on… you’re sitting here together. Everybody in town is talking about it already and the (interview) — and this is– it’s taking place.”

“You–you know, Steve, I—I got to tell you, the– you– guys in the press are incorrigible,” Obama replied, according to an early transcript from CBS released for the start of the show at this hour. “I was literally inaugurated four days ago. And you’re talking about– elections four years from now.”

“I am still secretary of state,” Clinton said. “So I’m out of politics. And I’m forbidden from even hearing these questions. I– I think that– you know, look, obviously– the president and I care deeply about what’s going to happen for our country in the future. And I don’t think, you know, either he or I can make predictions about what’s going to happen tomorrow or– the next year. What we’ve tried to do over the last four years is get up every day, have a clear eyed view of what’s going on in the world.”

The reason he requested a joint interview, the president said at the start, is that he wanted to honor the work Clinton had done.

“I think Hillary will go down as one of the finest secretary of states we’ve had,” Obama said. “It has been a great collaboration– over the last four years. I’m going to miss her. Wish she was sticking around. But she has logged in so many miles, I can’t begrudge her wanting– to take it easy for a little bit. But– I– I want the country to appreciate– just– what– an extraordinary role she’s played during the course of– my administration and– a lot of the successes we’ve had internationally have been because of– her hard work.”

“There’s no political tea leaves to be read here?” Kroft asked.

“We don’t have any tea,” Clinton said. “We’ve got some water here is the best I can tell. But– you know, this has been– just– the most extraordinary honor. And– yes, I mean, a few years ago it would have seen– been seen as improbable– because we had that very long, hard primary campaign. But, you know, I’ve gone around the world on behalf of the president and our country. And one of the things that I say to people, because I think it helps them understand, I say, `Look, in politics and in democracy– sometimes you win elections, sometimes you lose elections. And I worked very hard, but I lost. ”

“And then President Obama asked me to be secretary of state and I said yes. And so this has been just an extraordinary opportunity to work with him as a partner and friend, to do our very best on behalf of this country we both love. And– it’s– it’s something I’m going to miss a great deal.”

“ I consider Hillary a strong friend.,” Obama said. “I mean– very– warm, close– I– I think there’s– a sense of understanding that, you know, sometimes doesn’t even take words– because we have similar views. We have similar experiences– that I think– provide– a bond that– may seem unlikely to some, but– has been really at a core of– our relationship over the last four years.”

Kroft offered to spare reading them some things they’d said about one another in 2008.

”Please do,” Clinton said.

“I have to ask you,” Kroft asked,  “what’s the date of expiration on this endorsement?”

That’s when Obama chided the interviewer for talking about 2016.

No tea, Clinton noted. Only water.

Original post is Obama-Clinton: No Tea, Only Water by Political Capital.

Photograph by Bob Daemmrich/Corbis

Henry Barbour

Henry Barbour, nephew of the former Republican National Committee chairman and one-time Mississippi governor, wants to see his party grow and win again at the national level.

In a wide-ranging interview in his office in Jackson, Mississippi, Barbour talked about his role on an RNC study group charged with conducting an autopsy of what went wrong with the party’s efforts to win the White House in November.

On immigration, Barbour said the party needs to soften its tone.

“Too many times we come across as hostile,” he said during an interview at his office and at a diner a few blocks away.

“I think that’s true with Hispanics,” he said. “Too often, the most vocal people in our party are the ones who come across as anti-immigration, not even anti-illegal, but just plain anti-immigration. We’ve got to change that.”

See the full story on Barbour and the RNC’s Growth and Opportunity Project at Bloomberg.com.

Original post is Barbour 2.0: Republican Renewal by Political Capital.

Photograph by Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Photo

President Barack Obama greets Bronx Science High School students at the New York City Science and Engineering Fair.

To say the Bronx votes Democratic is a colossal understatement.

That swath of New York City was Obama’s second best-performing county in the nation in the 2012 election. The Bronx also includes the most pro-Obama congressional district in the nation, New York’s 15^th, which gave the president 97 percent of the vote, according to data compiled by Political Capital.

Obama took 171,350 votes to 5,315 for Mitt Romney and 448 for other candidates in that district, according to our number-crunching.

While Political Capital hasn’t calculated the presidential election results in all 435 districts, we’ve analyzed enough of the election data — including in Democratic strongholds like Chicago, Los Angeles and Philadelphia — to say with confidence that New York’s 15th, represented by Democrat Jose E. Serrano, was Obama’s top-performing district.

We spotted some precincts in Serrano’s district that gave Republican challenger Mitt Romney zero votes, including one that gave Obama 131.

Obama’s second-best district probably was New York’s 13th, an area of northern Manhattan and the Bronx where Obama took 95 percent. Democrat Charles Rangel represents that district.

The one-sided vote for Obama in districts like Serrano’s and in other large central cities also calls attention to a challenge for Democrats in their quest to win control of the House of Representatives: they’re less efficiently distributed across the nation than Republicans. Republicans control the House by 233-200 even though Democrats received over one million votes more than Republicans in the aggregate House vote.

Henry Goldman contributed.

Original post is NY Hearts Obama: The Bronx Claims President’s Top District in 2012 by Political Capital.