Photograph by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Former President George W. Bush and Alan Lowe, director of the George W. Bush Presidential Center arrive for a signing ceremony for the joint use agreement between the National Archive and the George W. Bush Presidential Center on the campus of Southern Methodist University on April 24, 2013 in Dallas, Texas.

George W. Bush hasn’t done much talking since leaving the White House.

Tomorrow, with the dedication of the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Texas, the former governor of the Lone Star state and two-term president is uncapping.

Charlie Rose will be interviewing the 43rd president for CBS News’ “This Morning,” airing on the morning of the dedication at the campus of Southern Methodist University near Dallas, the alma mater of former first lady Laura Bush.

Diane Sawyer’s latest interview of Bush airs tonight on ABC News’ “World News Tonight.” Segments also will air on “Nightline” and on “Good Morning America.”

 Matt Lauer is promoting “the first live interview with the president and his wife during the ceremonial day” at NBC News’ “Today Show.

They will talk about the birth of the Bush’s first granddaughter to “Today’s Own Jenna Bush Hager,” and more.

The former president’s father, the 41st president, will be there for the dedication — his presidential library and museum sits at Texas A&M in College Station. President Barack Obama will be there, as will former Presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter — all making their first reunion since January 2009.

Even C-SPAN will get in on the interviews.

Original post is George W. Bush Unplugged by Political Capital.

Photograph by Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Zbigniew Brzezinski speaks during a forum on U.S. and Saudi relations in Washington, DC.

This is @zbig:

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the stern-voiced former National Security Adviser and a trustee at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, has started tweeting.

About cyber attacks.

In his debut today on Twitter, ”Dad,” as daughter Mika introduces him frequently on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” and the author of “Strategic Vision,” is pictured in the Oval Office a few decades ago with his former boss, President Jimmy Carter:

In our new age of cyber attacks, for my first tweet, some thoughts on how to prevent “Anonymous Wars.” #anonymouswars on.ft.com/14IJ8lD

— Zbigniew Brzezinski (@zbig) April 4, 2013

Original post is Zbig News: Tweeting on Cyber Attacks by Political Capital.

Photograph by Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

U.S. Marines 2nd Batallion, 1st Marines Regiment with Female Engagement Team Sargeant Savanna E. Malendoski, center, and Sargeant Patricia A. Aquino, left, talk to Afghan villagers during a visit to a village in Gamser, Helmand Province, southern Afghanistan.

So women will go to war.

But when will they be drafted?

The Defense Department’s decision to lift the ban against women on the front lines of combat leaves open the question of the draft.

Men were drafted for the Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korea and Vietnam, when the draft ended.

Still, it was Congress, with the passage of a new Selective Service act in 1980 — at President Jimmy Carter’s direction, looking at the Russian invasion of Afghanistan — that shaped the modern law requiring young men to register for the draft, in the event of a need.

The Supreme Court voted 6-3 in 1981 against a challenge by men claiming discrimination under the law.

As the Pentagon works in the coming few years to determine which combat roles will be open to women, and what the standards will be, it will not be the Pentagon that decides if women are to be added to the draft rolls. It will be Congress, says Larry Romo, 12th director of the Selective Service System, in an interview with National Public Radio.

“Congress and the president can either continue the military selective service as is, or they can pass a new law,” he says.

As it stands, 92 percent of men under 25 comply with the law and register with the draft.

Asked how much preparation he had for this issue, he said something interesting about Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s decision to lift the ban on women in combat.

“We actually didn’t find anything out until I read about in the media,” the draft director said — though he has told the Pentagon that he stands ready to provide any information, while noting that Defense has until 2016 to approve final details of its deployment of women.

Congress? They have all the time they want.

Original post is When Will Women Be Drafted for War? — When Congress Says So by Political Capital.

Photograph by Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg

Former President Jimmy Carter, right, waves while arriving with his wife Rosalynn Carter, center, during the presidential inauguration in Washington on Jan. 21, 2013.

Among the dignitaries who got a bird’s-eye view of the swearing-in ceremony for President Barack Obama’s second term yesterday, ex-President Bill Clinton — with his mane of snow-white hair and ever-expressive face — was especially hard to miss. Blending more into the background — much like his one term in office – was the even whiter-haired former president on stage, Jimmy Carter.

His presence called to mind the milestone he set with minimum notice in early September – longest post-presidency tenure.

At that point last year, Carter surpassed Herbert Hoover, who shortly into a term that began in 1929 saw the stock market crash and the Great Depression grip America — and decided the best way to combat the economic turmoil was to do little. Voters resoundingly bounced him from office in favor of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, and Hoover officially turned over the White House keys to his successor on March 4, 1933 (the January inauguration date was set for the next election cycle).

Much like Carter became for Republicans, Hoover for decades was a favorite whipping-boy for Democrats, who would sneeringly invoke his name as a symbol of political ineptitude. But also much like Carter, an advocate for housing for those in hardship and fair elections around the globe, Hoover kept himself busy with worthwhile activities after leaving office, including organizing a school-meals program for much of occupied Germany following World War II and overseeing the famed think tank named for him at Stanford University.

Hoover had been an ex-president for a bit more than 31-and-a-half years when he died in 1964 at age 90.

For Carter, 88, it’s been 32 years and two days — and counting — since Ronald Reagan replaced him as president.

Original post is Jimmy Carter’s Longest-Running Post-Oval Office Performance by Political Capital.

Photograph by Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images

The crowd watches a large screen on the National Mall during President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2009.

The White House is preparing for another inauguration.

This one will span two days, with an official swearing in on the day required under the Constitution, Sunday the 20th, and a ceremonial swearing in outside the Capitol on Monday the 21st, the day on which the Martin Luther King federal holiday will be recognized.

These, as we’ve noted before, mark the third and fourth oaths of office for President Barack Obama, the nation’s first African-American president, who delivered one oath in public in January 2009 and other in private after Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts botched the lines in the first take.

The president is inviting a crowd, with the turnout expected to fall somewhat short of the million and a half people who filled the National Mall on Jan. 20, 2009. The inaugural committee has posted its first video with scenes and outtakes from that celebration:

“What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility,” Obama said four years ago.

Four former presidents serve as the honorary co-chairs of the inaugural committee — Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. The committee also is led by Ambassador Martin Barzun, national finance chair of Obama’s re-election campaign. actress Eva Longoria and others. And, this time, Obama is accepting corporate contributions.

Original post is Obama’s Second-Term Inauguration: `Era of Responsibility,’ Take Four by Political Capital.

Photograph by Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

David Rubenstein, co-chief executive officer of Carlyle Group LP.

Written with Jason Kelly

What would David Rubenstein do?

That was the question posed to the private-equity tycoon and former Carter administration policy wonk today in Washington, as the town stares down a so-called fiscal cliff that, if breached, would probably throw the country back into recession.

“The election results change everything,” Rubenstein, co-founder and co-CEO of Washington-based Carlyle Group, said in a lunchtime discussion with Jason Kelly, managing editor for Bloomberg Link, at Bloomberg Government’s offices in the capital. “Once the election was over, I think Republicans recognized that the president had more ability to persuade members of Congress that his way was more likely to be the prevailing way.”

A lifelong Democrat who served as deputy assistant for domestic policy to President Jimmy Carter, Rubenstein said he sees four elements of revenue increases in an eventual fiscal bargain: higher marginal tax rates — “though probably not as high as 39 percent,” a bump in the capital gains tax to 20 percent, a dividend tax rate between 20 percent and 25 percent and a higher estate tax.

Spending cuts, Rubenstein said, will probably be negotiated “down the road.”

As the chief fundraiser for Carlyle, which oversees $157 billion, Rubenstein travels to about 50 countries a year. Everywhere he goes, he said, the first question people ask him is not about Carlyle, but about the fiscal cliff.

“The markets would be in chaos” if the U.S. failed to resolve the $607 billion of spending cuts and tax increases that are set to start in January unless Congress acts to avoid them, Rubenstein said.

Still, according to the global investor, “people have taken the view that this will get resolved. The markets believe a deal will get done.”

Original post is Rubenstein: Markets Expect No Cliff by Political Capital.

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange looks over a newspaper on Nov. 3, 2004, the day after Election Day.

That’s how many states backed the White House winner by fewer than five percentage points in the past three presidential elections that also were decided by fewer than five percentage points.

In 2004, when President George W. Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry by 2.5 points, 11 states gave the victor a winning margin of victory of fewer than five points.

In 2000, when Bush won an Electoral College majority despite losing the popular vote to Democrat Al Gore by five-tenths of one point, 12 states were decided by fewer than five points.

In 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter unseated President Gerald Ford by about two points, 20 states sided with the winner by fewer than five points. Those states included California, New York and Illinois, which are today safely Democratic, and Texas, Oklahoma and Mississippi, which are strongly Republican.

Nine states were decided by fewer than five points in both 2000 and 2004. They are Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The Nov. 6 election between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney probably will be decided by fewer than five points, polls suggest. In how many states do you think the winner and loser will be separated by fewer than five points?

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: 11, 12, 20 by Political Capital.

Photograph by Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Employees prepare chairs to be sprayed at a furniture manufacturing facility in Lakewood, NJ.

The nation’s Gross Domestic Product has grown less during President Barack Obama’s term than during the first terms of two Bush presidencies, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan.

Of course, it started off in a trough during Obama’s first and second years, following the worst recession since the Great Depression, which started before Obama’s election.

So notes Steve Rattner, the Wall Street financier who oversaw the Obama administration’s bailout of the auto industry.

Rattner likes charts, and he rolled some out on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” this morning.

They offer mixed messages about the impact of these numbers on elections.

With the negative nose-dive in the GDP during Obama’s second year included, Rattner reports, GDP has grown by 3.1 percent overall since the start of the president’s term. Compare that with 13.9 percent GDP growth during the first term of former President Bill Clinton, who won re-election in 1996.

Yet even double-digit GDP growth during a president’s first term is no assurance of victory: It rose by 13.5 percent during Carter’s term, and he lost at re-election. It rose by 8.9 percent during President George H.W. Bush’s term, and he lost too.

The nation’s GDP grew by 9.2 percent during son George W. Bush’s first term, and he won re-election in 2004. It grew by 12.6 percent during Ronald Reagan’s first term, and he won re-election in 1984.

There’s a similar story in job growth:

Overall job growth (loss) during Obama’s term, after reaching a nadir of losses during his second year, still remains negative: minus 0.1 percent.

Yet George W. Bush saw the same picture in 2004: The nation recorded a 0.3 percent job loss during his first term, and he was re-elected.

The first President Bush presided over 1.8 percent job growth during his term, and he was not re-elected.

And of all the presidents noted here, Carter witnessed the greatest job growth during his term: 12.1 percent, and he was not re-elected.

For the others re-elected: Employment grew by 9.9 percent during Clinton’s first term and 5 percent during Reagan’s first term.

Original post is Obama’s GDP Growth Lowest of Six — Some Re-Elected, Some Not by Political Capital.

Photograph by Jewel Samad/AFP/Getty Images

Former US President Jimmy Carter arrives to deliver keynote address on "Perspectives on Inter-American Relations" during the 16th annual conference of Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) in Washington, DC, on September 06, 2012.

Don’t mess with Georgia.

There’s a certain rough justice in the fact that Republican Mitt Romney has made former President Jimmy Carter a whipping boy in his campaign against President Barack Obama, only to find Carter’s grandson taking credit for finding the videotape that exposed Romney talking about the 47 percent of Americans who pay no taxes and are dependent on government for everything — health care, housing, food — “you name it.”

James Carter IV has made the rounds of media interviews today, explaining to the Washington Post the methodology of his searches of the Internet for Romney videos that yielded a YouTube find he considered worth pursuing, tracking down the source of the videotape secretly made at a Romney fundraising dinner in Florida on May 17 and convincing the source that he had the connections who could make it famous.

“It’s safe to say” that the maker of the video was not one of the Romney supporters who paid $50,000 a plate for the dinner at the Boca Raton home of private equity executive Marc Leder, Carter said in an appearance this afternoon on MSNBC’s “Hardball.” Beyond that, the self-described partisan opposition researcher offered no more clues as to the origin of what will be remembered as the clip of the campaign, raw footage of Romney’s self-described “off the cuff” comments about what he really thinks about the have-nots in America.

It’s politics unplugged, the under-the-breath, after-the-podium, out of the spotlight comments that are the stuff of history.

And it made its way to Mother Jones magazine, which published segments of the tape yesterday and today and then the full tape online today, via the offspring of a former Democratic president who has been vilified by the other party in this campaign and even shunned by his own party. Carter was relegated to a videotape of his own shown at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte this month. Carter, citing his own convention in 1976, told the 2012 convention goers from afar: “I said then that America needs a president who shared your dreams… We have just such a leader in the White House.”

The Republican Party this summer produced an ad tying Obama’s presidency to Carter’s  – a minute-long piece opening with Carter in the Oval Office initiating “an unpleasant talk” with the American people: Gas prices doubling, the trade deficit growing, too many unemployed, federal spending taking a growing portion of what Americans produce. “The federal deficit is simply too high now,” Carter is shown saying in the footage, calling it “a turning point in our history.” The sober reminder of a time of malaise is interspersed with current images of Obama. “Are you better off?” the ad asks, concluding: “Obama isn’t working.”

Carter the Fourth received an e-mail from his grandfather today, the Associated Press reports.

“James: This is extraordinary,” the former president wrote. “Congratulations! Papa.”

Original post is Jimmy Carter to Video-Hunting anti-Romney `Partisan’ Grandson: `Extraordinary’ by Political Capital.

The party would not have him in person.

But it would have him in video.

Jimmy Carter, the Democrat elected president in 1976, is addressing the 2012 Democratic National Convention by video.

“I said then that America needs a president who shared your dreams,” Carter recalls of his nomination and election at the nation’s bicentennial, adding: “We have just such a leader in the White House.”

Carter has kept his distance from a convention which, ironically, is being staged in the Old South that the Georgian calls home — in Charlotte, North Carolina. And Carter was the last Democrat who won North Carolina’s vote for president — before President Barack Obama won it in 2008.

Now, Republican Mitt Romney is making Carter the whipping boy in a contest with Obama, with the Republican Party producing an ad that attempts to tie the two to one another.

Original post is Jimmy Carter Offered a President Sharing `Your Dreams:’ It’s Obama by Political Capital.