Photograph by William Thomas Cain/Getty Images

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks to the media after being named Chairman of the National Constitution Center’s Board of Trustees in Philadelphia.

Updated again at 7 am EST, March 5

Jeb Bush’s new book, “Immigration Wars,” is billed as a “call for systemic reform.”

In announcing the book last fall with co-author Clint Bolick, a research fellow with the Hoover Institution, the former governor of Florida, brother of one president and son of another said he hoped it would “help point the way to resolving a vitally important issue that has suffered from a colossal failure of political leadership on both sides of the partisan divide.”

In initially withholding his endorsement from any of his party’s candidates for president before his own state’s primary election in 2012, Bush was sending a message that the debate over immigration had grown too polarizing, alienating an important and growing electorate.

During the campaign, later signing on with nominee Mitt Romney and speaking for him at the Republican National Convention, Bush spoke proudly of what his older brother had attempted to achieve with immigration reform. Romney too shelved his own send-’em-home rhetoric from the party’s primaries.

“My brother attempted to do it… He had the votes,” Bush said of immigration legislation that would have enabled undocumented immigrants to seek a path to citizenship — he said this over breakfast at the Tampa convention with editors and reporters from Bloomberg News and the Washington Post. “We wouldn’t be talking about the issue if we’d had immigration reform in 2006.”

His party, he said, should evolve from the GOP to the “Grand Solutions Party.”

Yet, as the immigration debate of 2013 gets underway, with Republicans and Democrats in both the Senate and House working on plans for the comprehensive sort of reform that Bush advocates, he stops short of endorsing one of the tenets of the past attempt at reform and the newest one as well: Offering a path, or roadmap, to citizenship for many of the 11 million undocumented immigrants already living in the United States.

“No comprehensive immigration plan can ignore the many millions of people living illegally in the United States,” Bush and Bolick write in their book being released this week. At the same time, while trying to “put ourselves in the shoes of people who have entered the country illegally,” the nation cannot allow people to “immigrate illegally without consequence while millions of others wait to enter through lawful means.” This, they contend, would only create “a strong incentive for illegal immigration.”

The issue, they write, has two components, the adults who entered illegally, and those who came as children.

“We propose a path to permanent legal resident status for those who entered our country illegally as adults and who have committed no additional crimes of significance,” they write. “Permanent residency in this context, however, should not lead to citizenship. It is absolutely vital to the integrity of our immigration system that actions have consequences — in this case, that those who violated the laws can remain but cannot obtain the cherished fruits of citizenship.”

It’s different for children, they write — they were brought here under the control of adults and are not responsible for their wrongdoing. They embrace the goals of the DREAM Act, offering citizenship for children brought here illegally and who have lived here at least five years. And children born in the U.S. of illegal immigrant parents already have the right of citizenship.

On the question of citizenship for adults, it would appear that Bush has evolved in his thinking from last summer. In an interview with Charlie Rose in June 2012 he acknowledged that his support for a path to citizenship for the undocumented placed him at odds with many in his party. “You have to deal with the issue,” Bush said then. “You can’t ignore it. And so, either a path to citizenship — which I would support and that does put me probably out of the mainstream of most conservatives — or a path to legalization, a path to residency of some kind.”

Update: Last night, Bush explained that he hasn’t had a change of heart, and that indeed he’d remain open to compromise on the issue of citizenship as it’s debated.

“My views on this are based on the principle that those that come illegally should not be treated better than those that have waited patiently to come legally and never get called to come,” Bush replied in an e-mail to our question about his thinking on the question. “If a compromise is done dealing with this principle, then I could support such a compromise. That has been my view. No change of heart. We have written a book to try to pursuade conservatives to engage in the comprehensive reform debate.”

And then this morning, on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Bush said that he could support a bill providing a path to citizenship provided it were crafted in a way that didn’t encourage more illegal immigration. His book doesn’t propose that, he said, because he views his plan as a “clearer” way forward, yet, yes, he could support a well-constructed citizenship path.

It’s not only Hispanic voters with whom the Republican Party must recraft its tone and appeal, he added. It’s also Asian-American voters – the real “canary in the coal mine,” they gave three-quarters of their vote to Obama last year, he noted of the exit polls. Fair or not, he said, these generally more educated and affluent voters feel “stiff-armed” by Republicans.

As he first explained his thinking about residency and citizenship yesterday on NBC’s “Today” Show, Bush made some headlines in Washington and elsewhere: Romney, he said, had “put himself in a box” in the primaries by “trying to (out-do) conservatives… and he never really recovered from it.” At the same time, he said: “There has to be some difference between people who come here legally and illegally.”

Most notable of the day’s headlines: The Huffington Post’s, which suggests that another Republican who could figure prominently in his party’s presidential election contests has reversed positions — the headline spelling Immigration Reform backwards.

Bush said on “Today” that he hadn’t ruled out a run in 2016.

As he addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington next week, conservatives will be watching the path — a fine line, perhaps — that Bush treads between residency and citizenship on an issue that remains critical to his party’s successes at the polls.

Original post is Jeb Bush’s Path to Immigration Reform: Walking a Line by Political Capital.

Photograph by Chuck Kennedy/White House

The comedian Jimmy Fallon joined first lady Michelle Obama in the East Room of the White House on Jan. 25, 2012 to mark the second anniversary of “Let’s Move.” This year, Obama joined Fallon on his set. White House photo by Chuck Kennedy.

First it was Big Bird, dancing at the White House with first lady Michelle Obama.

Then it was the first lady, dancing on stage with Jimmy Fallon Friday night.

It’s all part of the “Let’s Move” campaign the first lady promotes for health and exercise — this is the third anniversary of the initiative; Fallon and Obama marked the second anniversary in the White House.

But not since Will Ferrell dressed up as Janet Reno for a dance party on SNL has anyone in the administrations had this much fun dancing — in public.

The “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” host offered an idea, too: a 2016 ticket of Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. The first lady said she actually has her eye on another job — when Jay Leno retires, she’s throwing her “hat in the ring.”

Welcome to the second term:

Original post is Fallon-Obama: ‘Mom Dancing’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by William B. Plowman/NBC/NBC NewsWire via Getty Images

David Axelrod on ‘Meet the Press’ in Washington on Jan. 20, 2013.

David Axelrod shaved his moustache in a simulcast of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and NBC’s “Today Show.”

Now he’s coming back as a paid political analyst.

The Chicago-based political strategist and one-time political reporter for the Chicago Tribune who nurtured Barack Obama’s political career in Illinois and then helped him win election and then re-election as president has returned home to run a new political institute at the University of Chicago. And he’s returning to the national spotlight as a senior political analyst for NBC News and MSNBC,

Axelrod removed his moustache on the morning shows after achieving a fundraising goal for research on epilepsy, a disease that has afflicted his daughter.

In his stint as a political commentator, NBC notes in its announcement today, he will join the likes of Steve Schmidt, former senior campaign strategist and adviser to the 2008 presidential campaign of Sen, John McCain of Arizona Michael Steele, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, and a two-term former governor of Pennsylvania, Democrat Ed Rendell.

The network announcement noted:

“For nearly three decades, Axelrod guided successful campaigns at every level on the ballot. He began his career as a journalist, spending eight years as a political writer, columnist and City Hall bureau chief for the Chicago Tribune before stepping into politics in 1984. He founded Axelrod and Associates, a political and media consulting firm which became AKPD Message and Media. He later founded the communications management firm ASGK Public Strategies.

“Axelrod, an alumnus of the University of Chicago, was recently named director of the university’s new Institute of Politics, and as a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Harris School of Public Policy. He previously worked as an Adjunct Professor of Communication Studies at Northwestern University. ”

Original post is Axelrod on the Air: NBC, MSNBC by Political Capital.

Photograph by Byron Cohen/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images

The cast of "1600 Penn."

“Lincoln” it’s not.

Still, the cast and crew of NBC’s new comedy “1600 Penn,” which premieres tomorrow, are being feted this evening at the White House, where President Barack Obama is hosting a private screening.

The show chronicles a fictional First Family, the Gilchrists, who neither in race nor hammy demeanor appear to have much in common with the Obamas.

One of the executive producers is former White House speechwriter Jon Lovett.

Obama hosted a screening of “Lincoln” late last year.

As for “Zero Dark Thirty,” the film about the killing of Osama bin Laden that has generated controversy for its depictions of torture and for questions about the access Obama administration officials gave the director and screenwriter, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said today he didn’t know whether the president has seen it. While the movie opens Jan. 11 in theaters, it has already has been showing in New York and in screenings including one in Washington last night that drew journalists and administration officials.

Original post is White House Popcorn Roasting: `Gilchrists’ Perform for Obamas by Political Capital.

Photograph by Chris Haston/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images

The cast of NBC's "1600 Penn."

Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, a Democrat, and Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin, a Republican, will discuss “State of States” addresses being delivered by fellow members of the National Governors Association at the National Press Club.

The Ocean Energy Safety Advisory Committee holds a public meeting today on oil spill prevention, containment and response after Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said the Obama administration will apply fresh scrutiny to Royal Dutch Shell’s activities in the Arctic following a string of drilling mishaps.

President Obama hosts the cast and crew of NBC television show “1600 Penn” for screening at the White House. It’s a private event.

And it’s the 100th anniversary of the birth of President Richard M. Nixon.

Friends including Henry Kissinger, Pat Buchanan, Fred Malek and Ben Stein will gather to remember him tonight at a gala at the Mayflower Hotel.

Original post is Washington Daybook: `1600 Penn’ by Political Capital.

In a wide-ranging interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” airing today, Obama calls Dec. 14, the day a gunman in Newtown, Connecticut, killed himself and 27 others, mostly children, “the worst day of my presidency.”

Warning of the adverse market reactions possible if Congress fails to reach a bipartisan deal before Jan. 1 to avert the so-called fiscal cliff , the president issues a call for action in the interview taped yesterday. The Republican-run House is set for an evening session, with little more than 24 hours left for the expirations of Bush-era tax cuts and automatic spending cuts set to take effect.

Obama also defends former Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel’s character against critics of his past stances on gays and Israel. The criticisms surfaced after Hagel was floated as a leading contender for defense secretary. Obama said while he’s not aware of anything in Hagel’s record that would disqualify him to serve as defense secretary he’s not yet decided whom to nominate.

In the interview, Obama describes himself as “a pretty practical guy” who is “not driven by some ideological agenda.”

Obama says it’s “just not true” that the gridlock in Congress is the result of an unwillingness by both parties to cooperate, laying the balance of the blame on Republicans and saying the fiscal cliff impasse reflects “how far certain factions inside the Republican Party have gone.”

On gun control, Obama says he is “skeptical” of gun advocates’ support for placing armed guards at schools throughout the country.

“I am skeptical that the only answer is putting more guns in schools, and I think the vast majority of the American people are skeptical that that somehow is going to solve our problem,” he says.

The Newtown shootings strengthened his resolve for an assault rifle ban and other measures, Obama says, and he expects to ask Congress to pass early next year.

“I’m going to be putting forward a package and I’m going to be putting my full weight behind it,” the president says.

At the same time, he says, “This is not going to be simply a matter of me spending political capital.” He says Congress will act only if Americans make it a priority.

Asked whether he will commit to getting “significant” reform on entitlements passed by Congress in the first year of his second term, Obama says no. Noting he has shown a willingness to cut how inflation is calculated on Social Security, against the wishes of other Democrats, Obama says he’s also made clear to Republicans that “you are not only going to cut your way to prosperity.”

“It is very difficult for me to say to a senior citizen or a student or a mom with a disabled kid, ’You are going to have to do with less but we’re not going to ask millionaires and billionaires to do more.’”

Original post is Obama: `Pretty Practical Guy’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Time Magazine via AP

President Barack Obama is Time Magazine's Person of the Year.

President Barack Obama, who won re-election last month and is the “author of a new America,” is Time magazine’s Person of the Year for a second time, the publication said today.

The president joins 12 others who have been honored twice.

The announcement was made by managing editor Rick Stengel on NBC’s “Today” show.

“After four of the most challenging years in the nation’s history, his chance to leave office as a great president who was able to face crises and build a new majority coalition remains within reach,” the magazine said.

The weekly news magazine for the past 85 years has selected the person, or sometimes a group or thing, who or that its editors deemed had the single greatest impact during the past year, for better or for worse.

Obama won the same honor in 2008 as president-elect.

See Time’s account.

Original post is Obama Time’s `Person of the Year’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Alex Wong/Getty Images

Secretary of Treasury Timothy Geithner at the Capitol for meeting with Congressional leaders on Nov. 29, 2012.

Tim Geithner, secretary of the treasury, is performing a “Full Ginsburg” this weekend.

That’s the colloquial term for what the point-man in the Obama administration’s fiscal cliff talks will achieve Sunday morning, when he appears on ABC’s “This Week,” CBS’s “Face the Nation,” CNN’s “State of the Union,” FOX ‘s “News Sunday” and NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

The moniker comes from the Monica era: William H. Ginsburg, attorney for former White House intern Monica Lewinsky during the “did not have sex” scandal involving President Bill Clinton, was the first person to accomplish the five broadcast-cable show sweep on Feb. 1, 1998.

Original post is Geithner’s `Full Ginsburg:’ Sunday by Political Capital.

Photograph by Alex Wong/Getty Images

Voters cast their ballots as they participate in early voting on Nov. 2, 2012 at the Silver Spring Civic Building in Silver Spring, Maryland.

“Tight as a tick” — President Barack Obama’s words for how close the vote is in some of the battleground states that matter most.

The latest national polling portrays a virtual tie among likely voters divided between Obama and Republican Mitt Romney — 50 percent Obama, 47 percent Romney in the Pew Poll; 48 Obama, 47 Romney, at NBC News and the Wall Street Journal; 48 Obama, 47 Romney, at CBS and the New York Times; 48-48 in the daily tracking poll at ABC News and the Washington Post; 46-46 at Fox News.

Yet it is those relative few swing states that will deliver the Electoral College victory of 270 votes. And, on the eve of Election Day 2012, there are more ticks than butterflies in the swing state surveys (and it’s worth noting that these are all states that Obama won in 2008):

OHIO: A must-win for any Republican who has ever won the White House. Without it, Romney would have to cobble another path to victory. It’s Obama 50, Romney 48, in the Columbus Dispatch poll run through Sunday. It was Obama 51, Romney 45, in the last NBC, Wall Street Journal poll through Nov. 1.

FLORIDA: One of the states Romney must win to make an Electoral College majority a reality, not so essential for Obama, who won it in 2008 by 2.8 percentage points. The NBC, Wall Street Journal survey run through Nov. 1 showed Obama at 49 percent, Romney 47. A Mason-Dixon poll run for the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald over the same time period: Romney 51, Obama 45.

VIRGINIA: Another state that Romney needs to overcome the Electoral College advantage Obama has in most pre-election surveys. It is 48 Obama percent, 47 Romney, in the NBC, Wall Street Journal poll out this morning, run through Nov. 2.

IOWA: Another state that Romney has hoped to capture. It is Obama 47 percent, 42 Romney, in the Des Moines Register poll released Saturday night. This is one of the most accurate state polls in the nation.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: This is where Romney’s roll begins on election night, if he rolls. The WMUR, University of New Hampshire poll showed Obama at 51 percent, Romney 48, in a survey run through Sunday. NBC and the Wall Street Journal, working with Marist College, found 49 for Obama, 47 Romney, through Oct. 29.

COLORADO: Another cornerstone of Romney’s formula for unseating Obama, particularly if the president holds Ohio. The Denver Post reports it’s Obama 47 percent, Romney 45, in a survey run through Halloween. CNN Opinion Research found Obama 50, Romney 48, through the same time frame.

If accurate, it all adds up to a potentially long election night.

Original post is `Tight’ Swing States, Long Night? by Political Capital.

Or seven points behind him.

Pick a poll.

A survey conducted this week for the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent. The first presidential debate is cited as the reason.

That Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey for the newspapers conflicts with another swing-state poll released today: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College survey found Obama leading Romney by 48 to 47 percent in Florida. That, too, marks a shift from September, when Obama led by 51-45 percent. More sign of a debate bounce.

The Mason-Dixon survey of 800 registered voters – all likely to vote — was conducted Oct. 8-10, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The NBC/Journal/Marist poll of 988 likely voters in Florida was taken Oct. 7-9, with a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

Last month, these polls were closer. Marist College’s survey for NBC and the Journal found Obama up five points — 49-44– in a survey Sept. 9-11.  Mason-Dixon, polling for the Florida papers, found Obama up one point — 48-47 — in a Sept. 17-19 survey.

There is a methodology difference, the Times’ Adam Smith reports: “Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people’s voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent.”

The Obama campaign found another point of contention:

The Mason-Dixon poll showed 46 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Romney and 46 percent Romney, though the margin of error is higher for that number. The NBC/Journal/Marist poll found Romney favored among 62 percent of Cuban-American voters in Florida, Obama favored among 61 percent of the non-Cuban Hispanic voters — who represent a fast-growing bloc in Central Florida.

Obama adviser David Plouffe told the newspapers that Obama got 57 percent of the state’s Hispanic vote in 2008, and expects more than 60 percent this time.

Original post is Florida: Eight-Point Gap in Two Polls by Political Capital.