Photograph by Alex Wong/Getty Images

President Barack Obama, left, and former President George W. Bush arrive at the opening ceremony of the George W. Bush Presidential Center on April 25, 2013 in Dallas, Texas.

That second term can be a real problem.

On May 19, 2005, the Pew Research Center reported that then-President George W. Bush’s popularity was slipping:

“Americans are critical of President Bush’s job performance in many policy areas, but negative opinions of his handling of the economy and Iraq are doing the most damage to his overall approval rating, which now stands at 43 percent. Just 35 percent approve of the president’s handling of the economy, down from 43 percent in February and 45 percent in January.”

“`With the level of violence rising in Iraq, Bush’s ratings also have slipped on that issue ­ from 45 percent in January, to 40 percent in February, and 37 percent currently. Over the same period, positive opinions of his handling of foreign policy have fallen 10 points, to 38 percent. There has been greater stability in Bush’s marks on energy policy and Social Security, but he gets positive ratings of only about 30 percent on both issues (energy policy 31 percent, Social Security 29 percent).”

President Barack Obama has no Iraq war to worry about, and he is winding down U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

But he does have the IRS to worry about now.

And that cuts closer to home for more Americans than any foreign conflict in recent years.

Having accepted the forced resignation of the acting IRS commissioner this week after it was revealed that workers had singled out Tea Party-related groups for scrutiny, the president will confront continuing questions as the first of the congressional hearings start tomorrow.

The president’s job approval, which reached 58 percent after reelection, in December, stood at 53 percent as recently as mid-April in the Gallup Poll’s count. Today, it is down to 48 percent in a three-day survey, May 13-15.

By the Pew Research Center’s count, the president’s job approval stood at 51 percent in April, after slipping to 47 percent in March.

Both counts are somewhat better than the 43 percent that Bush was looking at in this stage of his second term.

Nate Silver has taken it a step further, looking at the average standing of past seven presidents, back to Harry Truman.

“The seven presidents were quite popular, on average, in their first term,” Silver reports at the FiveThirtyEight blog. “Their approval ratings averaged 59 percent throughout their first term, and 57 percent in the final year of their first term, when they faced an election.”

“By contrast, the same presidents averaged a 48 percent approval rating during their second term. Moreover, their approval ratings declined throughout their second term – to an average of only 42 percent by the final year of their second term.”

At the same time, he attempts to dispel the myth of the cursed second term.

Original post is Obama’s Second Term vs. Bush’s Second Term: Job Approval #s by Political Capital.

Photograph by Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

President Barack Obama listens to a question during a press conference in the East Room of the White House on May 7, 2013 in Washington.

Gridlock doesn’t play well in Peoria.

President Barack Obama’s job approval — 51 percent in a Pew Research Center survey released today — has gained a few points since March, when Pew found 47 percent public support.

Yet six months after re-election, public perception of the president’s effectiveness has slipped from 57 percent to 49 percent, Pew reports in the poll released at noon.

The approval rating for Republican leaders in Congress — 22 percent — is “among the lowest approval rating for congressional leaders from either party in 20 years,” Pew reports.

In addition, a record 80 percent say the president and Republican leaders are not working together on important issues, and the public blames Republican leaders more than Obama for the gridlock by a margin of nearly two-to-one.

Six months after the president’s re-election, following the defeat of a gun safety agenda that the president pursued in the aftermath of the Newtown, Connecticut, schoolhouse shootings in December, the survey of 1,404 adults, conducted May 1-5, found the public divided over the perception of Obama as someone able to get things done — 49 percent said he is, 46 percent said he is not. Views of the president’s effectiveness have declined since shortly after re-election in November, Pew notes: More, 57 percent, viewed him as effective then.

Most people continue to say that Obama stands up for what he believes in (76 percent) and that he fights hard to get his policies passed (67 percent). Most also say Obama is a strong leader (56 percent), while 40 percent say he is not.

At 51 percent, the president’s job approval has edged up from its recent low of 47 percent in March, in Pew’s surveys. Yet it trails his 55 percent approval in early December.

Public opinion is split over which party can do a better job on key issues: 42 percent say the Republicans on the economy, 38 percent the Democrats; it’s a 38-38 split on immigration, and 42-39 in favor of Republicans on gun control.

The survey has a possible 2.9 percentage point margin of error. See the poll here.

Original post is Obama’s Effectiveness Slips: Pew Poll by Political Capital.

Photograph by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Boxes of ammunition sit on the shelf at Sportsmans Arms in Petaluma, California.

If proponents of gun safety legislation were counting on a public backlash over the Senate’s vote against expansion of background checks for gun-buyers, they won’t find it here:

Among Americans surveyed by the Pew Research Center on a subject which generally has been found to enjoy 90 percent public support — the expansion of gun background checks — only 47 percent voiced negative feelings about the Senate’s vote while 39 percent had a positive reaction.

The White House and other advocates of gun safety have suggested that senators who scuttled the background check bill will be hearing from voters. Yet this initial gauge of public reaction suggests something less than a groundswell of reaction on the issue.

The Senate voted 54-46 for a bipartisan measure last week — falling six votes shy of the 60 needed to advance it in the chamber. Five Democrats and 41 Republicans voted no, though Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid did so to preserve his right to ask for reconsideration of the matter.

Overall, 15 percent of Americans surveyed said they are angry this legislation was voted down and 32 percent said they are disappointed. On the other side, 20 percent said they are very happy the legislation was blocked, while 19 percent said they are relieved.

The national survey of 1,002 adults was conducted April 18-21.

“Republicans and Democrats paid equally close attention to the gun debate last week: 40 percent across party lines say they tracked the events very closely, making it the second most closely followed story last week, after the terrorist bombings at the Boston Marathon.” Pew notes.

Original post is Public Reaction to Senate Gun Vote: 47% Negative, 39% Positive by Political Capital.

Photograph by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Tire tracks run across the dry bottom of the Morse Reservoir in Cicero, Indiana, on July 12, 2012.

That’s the share of Americans who say global warming is a “very serious” problem, according to a Pew Research Center survey in March.

That compares with 32 percent who said global warming is a somewhat serious problem, 20 percent who said it’s not a problem, and 13 percent who said it isn’t too serious. The “very serious” percentage declined from 39 percent in 2012 and 45 percent in 2007, Pew data show.

While about two-thirds of Americans think global warming is a very serious or somewhat serious problem, most don’t consider it among the most urgent issues for lawmakers to address. 

The American public “routinely ranks dealing with global warming low on its list of priorities for the president and Congress,” according to a Pew analysis on April 2. Just 28 percent of Americans Pew surveyed said in January said that global warming should be a “top priority” for President Barack Obama and the Congress, the lowest-rated issue among 21 tested.

Fifty-two percent said protecting the environment should be a top priority, up 11 points from 2009, Pew data show. Bigger majorities say Obama and Congress should prioritize economic and job growth, curbing federal budget deficits, protecting the nation from terrorism and ensuring the financial stability of Social Security and Medicare.

“There is no indication” from polls “that young people’s commitment to a clean and healthful environment has lessened,” according to an analysis by the American Enterprise Institute in its compilation of polling from Pew and other survey organizations on environmental and energy issues. “They, like most Americans, simply attach less urgency to it than in the past.”

Today is Earth Day, which has been observed every April 22 since 1970.

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: 33 by Political Capital.

Photograph by Pedro Ugarte/AFP via Getty Images

North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade to mark 100 years since the birth of North Korea’s founder Kim Il-Sung in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.

That’s the percentage of Americans who say U.S. officials should take North Korea’s nuclear threats “very seriously,” according to the Pew Research Center.

That compares to 27 percent who say the government should take the threats “somewhat seriously,” according to the poll of 1,003 adults conducted April 4-7.

By a margin of 47 percent to 41 percent, more Americans think North Korea’s regime, led by dictator Kim Jong Un, is willing to follow through on threats to carry out pre-emptive nuclear strikes against the U.S.

North Korea’s building and testing of nuclear weapons “represent a clear and direct threat to U.S. national security and regional peace and stability,” Admiral Samuel Locklear, the head of the U.S. Pacific Command, said in written testimony before a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday, Bloomberg’s Terry Atlas and Roxana Tiron reported.

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: 56 by Political Capital.

Photograph by Hulton Archive/Getty Images

British prime minister Margaret Thatcher in Downing Street, London, at the start of her third term in office.

With the passing of Margaret Thatcher, the only female prime minister in the United Kingdom’s history, the folks at the Pew Research Center are pointing out to public expectations about the election of a female American president.

The last time Pew surveyed, two years ago, 89 percent of those asked said a woman will probably or definitely be elected in the U.S. within 40 years.

That was up from 80 percent in May of 1999.

Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign for the Democratic nomination may have had something to do with that growing perception.

Clinton’s 2016 campaign — oh, wait, she hasn’t announced yet — could push that perception higher.

If Thatcher was the Iron Lady, Clinton will need a handle, too.

See Bloomberg Businessweek’s Josh Green on what Thatcher taught Clinton.

It’s also worth noting:

Re Margaret Thatcher, in 2010, most Americans predicted a woman president by 2050. But only 28% saw it as definite.pewrsr.ch/X0RWMx

— Carroll Doherty (@CarrollDoherty) April 8, 2013

Original post is Margaret Thatcher, Hillary Clinton: Name? by Political Capital.

Photograph by David McNew/Getty Images

Marijuana at the Perennial Holistic Wellness Center medical marijuana dispensary in Los Angeles, California.

That’s the percentage of Americans who support legalizing marijuana, according to the Pew Research Center.

It’s the first time in more than 40 years of polling on the issue that a majority back legalization, Pew said in a report yesterday. The most recent survey was conducted March 13-17.

In 1969, Americans opposed legalization by 84 percent to 12 percent, according to Gallup. Opposition fell to 66 percent in 1978 before rising in the 1980s, during the administration of Ronald Reagan and the “just say no” campaign of First Lady Nancy Reagan. Opposition to legalizing marijuana consistently fell during the 1990s and 2000s to 52 percent in 2010 and 50 percent in 2011, the Pew report said. (Pew has a nice timeline of public opinion here.)

Voters in Washington and Colorado approved ballot proposals last year legalizing possession of up to one ounce of marijuana. Attorney General Eric Holder said last month the Justice Department would respond “relatively soon” to state marijuana laws, Bloomberg’s Phil Mattingly reported March 6.

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: 52 by Political Capital.

Photograph by J Pat Carter/AP Photo

Student Federico Paseiro wears a T-Shirt with a message that reads “Undocumented,” at a meeting for “Dreamers’ Moms” March 20, 2013 at a Miami church.

A path to citizenship?

A partisan divide?

It depends on the question.

With a Washington Post/ABC News poll today showing that 57 percent of registered voters support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, it finds that only 35 percent of Republicans do — part of the equation that Republican leaders in Washington are weighing in an immigration debate in which that path is the pivot on which passage of any legislation may turn.

Yet, as the folks at Talking Points Memo note — and Pew Research Center pollster Carroll Doherty readily concurs (calling it a “no-brainer that wording matters”)– it depends on how the question is asked:

See this @tpm review of recent immigration polls. No brainer thatwording matters, but so true on immigration. tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/04/republ…

— Carroll Doherty (@CarrollDoherty) April 3, 2013

“A Brookings Institution/Public Religion Resarch Institute poll last month found majority support for citizenship among Republicans (53 percent) and a variety of GOP-leaning demographics like white evangelicals, but asked respondents in the context of whether they preferred the earned citizenship approach to a policy of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.

 Pew found that 64 percent of Republicans favored granting some legal status to the undocumented population, but only 38 percent thought this new status should include a path to citizenship. “In that case, TPM notes, “Pew asked respondents whether they thought `there should be a way for those who meet certain requirements to stay in the country legally’ or whether `they should not be allowed to stay in the country legally,’ avoiding the harsher deportation language used by Brookings.”

Original post is Path to Citizenship Partisan? It Depends by Political Capital.

Photograph by John Moore/Getty Images

Migrant farm workers carry cases of freshly picked spinach on a farm near Wellington, Colorado.

As lawmakers work to finalize an immigration law rewrite that would provide a path to citizenship for many of the undocumented already here, fewer than half of all Americans say the undocumented should be eligible to become citizens, according to a survey run by the Pew Research Center.

While 71 percent of respondents to a new Pew poll say undocumented immigrants should be able to stay in the U.S. as long as they meet certain requirements, 24 percent say they should be eligible for permanent residency.  Only 43 percent say undocumented immigrants should be eligible for citizenship.

Another 27 percent of respondents say undocumented immigrants should not be allowed to stay in the country legally.

Pew’s findings come as eight senators work to finalize a bill that provides undocumented immigrants with a path to citizenship, Bloomberg’s Julie Hirschfeld Davis reports. The bipartisan Senate group is pushing to unveil its measure the week of April 8.

Approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants currently live in the U.S.

The national survey of 1,501 people was conducted March 13-17.

Original post is Undocumented Should Be Able to Stay, With Some Conditions: Poll by Political Capital.

Photograph by Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Justin Kenny of Akron, Ohio holds a modified Stars and Stripes flag in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, on March 26, 2013 in Washington, DC.

That’s the percentage of Americans who have a favorable view of the Supreme Court, according to the Pew Research Center.

That compares with 31 percent who have an unfavorable view of the high court, according to interviews conducted March 13-17.

The public’s view of the Supreme Court is near a quarter-century low of 51 percent set last summer, when it upheld the core of President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul. In the wake of that ruling, the high court’s approval rating plunged among Republicans, who opposed the overhaul, and rose among Democrats.

Forty-seven percent of Republicans and 56 percent of Democrats have a favorable opinion of the Supreme Court, according to Pew’s most recent surveys.

The Supreme Court this week is considering same-sex marriage for the first time. It will hear arguments today on a California ballot measure, passed by voters in 2008, that prohibited same-sex marriage. The court will hear arguments tomorrow on the constitutionality of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which prohibits the federal government from recognizing same-sex unions. The court will decide the cases by June.

The California ballot measure banning gay marriage has lost support in public opinion polls, Bloomberg’s Alison Vekshin reported yesterday. Dozens of people, some of them hired by interest groups, lined up outside the Supreme Court days ago in hopes of securing a chance to witness the arguments, Bloomberg’s Nick Taborek reported.

This week’s arguments may yield insight into whether the Supreme Court “cares what big business thinking about gay marriage,” Bloomberg BusinessWeek’s Paul Barrett wrote. Companies including Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. filed briefs in support of same-sex marriage.

Original post is Bloomberg by the Numbers: 52 by Political Capital.