The rate of satisfaction has average 25 percent so far this year.

Most Americans surveyed were satisfied at the end of 2004 — 55 percent — but satisfaction has been reserved for a dwindling minority since then.

American satisfaction has averaged 38 percent  since 1979, when Gallup first asked the question.

The highest yearly average of 60 percent was recorded in 1986, two years into President Ronald Reagan’s second term, and in 1998 and 2000, during the economic boom on President Bill Clinton’s watch.

The lowest yearly average of 15 percent was recorded in 2008, as the worst recession since the Great Depression took its toll.

Original post is Americans Can’t Get No Satisfaction by Political Capital.

Photograph by Pete Marovich/Getty Images

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks at the 2013 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) March 16, 2013 in National Harbor, Maryland.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker got a warm reception at the Conservative Political Action Conference today, getting the crowd on its feet more often than most speakers.

Among potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates, only Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky received such a hearty response from the thousands gathered in a convention ballroom in Oxon Hill, Maryland.

Walker told Politico yesterday that he’s open to running for president and declined to pledge to serve a full four-year term, if he’s reelected next year.

Walker told reporters today that his top job is helping create jobs in Wisconsin.

“Any other discussions about what may or may not be in the future, is really related to what I do as governor,” he said. “So it’s in my best interest to continue to do a good job for people of the state. But I’m not testing anything right now. I’m focused on being governor.”

Asked if he’d serve a full second term if re-elected, Walker said, “For me, that’s a discussion to have in the 2014 campaign.”

In his speech, Walker sold his experience as governor in a battleground state, where his fights with organized labor have made him a hero to the Tea Party movement.

“Real reform doesn’t happen in our nation’s capital,” he said. “It happens in our statehouses all across this great country.”

Walker also reminded the crowd that Ronald Reagan — someone revered by the audience — was a governor.

The governor said the Republican Party needs to talk about pocketbook issues more and focus on the budget battles in Washington less.

“In additional to being optimistic, we need to relevant,” he said.

Walker won applause for his decision to reject an expansion of Medicaid in Wisconsin.

“In my state, I said I want to reduce the number of people who are uninsured, but I always want to reduce the number of people who are on Medicaid,” he said, adding that it’s more import to help them find work.

“That means true freedom and prosperity, not more government dependency,” he said.

Walker got bigger applause when he contrasted an American holiday with the day that federal taxes are due.

“In America, we take a day off and celebrate the 4th of July, not the 15th of April,” he said. “In America, we believe in the people and not in the government.”

Original post is Walker: Reagan Was a Governor by Political Capital.

Photograph by Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

Rep. Sander Levin, D-Mich., makes his way around the Cannon rotunda.

U.S. Rep. Sander Levin, a Democrat from Michigan, recalls his last substantive issue discussion with a Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee.

It was 13 years ago.

He and Bill Thomas, then a Republican congressman from California who served as the committee’s chairman, came to an agreement on a trade deal with China. It required give and take, then compromise, he said in an interview. Levin, 82, hasn’t seen that happen on “truly substantive” legislation since.

The $85 billion in automatic budget cuts that started March 1 — reductions crafted to be so arbitrary and damaging that they would not actually occur — exemplify the dysfunction in Washington that he has seen been building for the last 20 years.

And Levin isn’t alone.

“I see it getting worse before it gets better,” said Rep. Peter King of New York, a Republican. “Too many people in Congress have not been in politics before, and they are not used to the give and take. They don’t understand the necessity of compromise. Ronald Reagan used to take his principles to the table, and make the best deal you can.”

The inability of leaders in Washington to reach an agreement to forestall the cuts, commonly called sequestration, adds to the disillusion Americans express about their government. Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, according to a Gallup pollpublished Feb. 19.

See the full report at Bloomberg.com.

Original post is Congressional Dysfunction Breeds Nostalgia for Spirit of Compromise by Political Capital.

Photograph by Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg

Former President Jimmy Carter, right, waves while arriving with his wife Rosalynn Carter, center, during the presidential inauguration in Washington on Jan. 21, 2013.

Among the dignitaries who got a bird’s-eye view of the swearing-in ceremony for President Barack Obama’s second term yesterday, ex-President Bill Clinton — with his mane of snow-white hair and ever-expressive face — was especially hard to miss. Blending more into the background — much like his one term in office – was the even whiter-haired former president on stage, Jimmy Carter.

His presence called to mind the milestone he set with minimum notice in early September – longest post-presidency tenure.

At that point last year, Carter surpassed Herbert Hoover, who shortly into a term that began in 1929 saw the stock market crash and the Great Depression grip America — and decided the best way to combat the economic turmoil was to do little. Voters resoundingly bounced him from office in favor of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, and Hoover officially turned over the White House keys to his successor on March 4, 1933 (the January inauguration date was set for the next election cycle).

Much like Carter became for Republicans, Hoover for decades was a favorite whipping-boy for Democrats, who would sneeringly invoke his name as a symbol of political ineptitude. But also much like Carter, an advocate for housing for those in hardship and fair elections around the globe, Hoover kept himself busy with worthwhile activities after leaving office, including organizing a school-meals program for much of occupied Germany following World War II and overseeing the famed think tank named for him at Stanford University.

Hoover had been an ex-president for a bit more than 31-and-a-half years when he died in 1964 at age 90.

For Carter, 88, it’s been 32 years and two days — and counting — since Ronald Reagan replaced him as president.

Original post is Jimmy Carter’s Longest-Running Post-Oval Office Performance by Political Capital.

Photograph by Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Cristina Castro, 23, of New York, wraps up against the cold while waiting to enter the Capitol to watch the inauguration of Barack Obama.

The real inauguration will play out indoors.

The outdoor celebration the next day will be chilling.

President Barack Obama’s second term actually starts at noon Sunday, on the date and time demanded by the Constitution. The president will have Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. in for an intimate swearing-in at the White House.

The celebration the public sees outside the U.S. Capitol, on Monday, a federal holiday commemorating the birth of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., won’t be quite so warm.

What’s normal for this date in Washington is a high of 43 degrees Farenheit, and a low of 28, according to the National Weather Service.

The new normal, lately, has been a lot colder.

Ronald Reagan’s second swearing-in, in 1985, set the record. It was 7 degrees outside at noon, with a wind-chill of minus 10 to minus 20 that day, so he took the oath indoors, and the inaugural parade was canceled.

(Reagan already had set another record: His first inauguration, in 1981, was the warmest in history, with a balmy noontime temp of 55.)

It was below freezing for Obama’s first inauguration, in 2009 — 28 degrees at noon. It was just above freezing for both of George W. Bush’s inaugurations, in 2001 and 2005 — 35 and 36 degrees.

Of course, they all had it easy — compared with President William Henry Harrison, sworn into office on a cold and blustery day in 1841.

Harrison talked for an hour and 40 minutes and rode horseback to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. He caught a cold, which turned to pneumonia, and died a month later.

It’s not always dry, either. William Taft was sworn into office in 1909 with 9.8 inches of snow on the ground. Almost two inches of rain fell on the day of Franklin Roosevelt’s second inauguration, in 1937.

There’s a one-in-six chance of precipitation this time around, and also a one-in-20 chance of snow during the outdoor ceremony.

There’s also a one-in-six chance that there will be at least one inch of snow already on the ground.

Though the practical forecast is cheerier: A high of 40 on Monday, and most likely dry, the day that Obama delivers his final inaugural address.

He’ll be the first president since Roosevelt, as we’ve noted before, to be sworn in four times. Obama took two oaths in 2009, after Roberts botched the first one outdoors and delivered a rerun indoors, and Obama is taking two this year. Roosevelt actually was elected four times, which is no longer possible under the 22nd Amendment (ratified in 1951).

(This follows a certain line of Republican thinking: It’ll be a cold day in Washington when Obama takes his fourth oath of office.)

Expect no climatic record-setting, though, other than the general trend toward global warming which Washington largely ignores.

The White House, nevertheless, will be cranking the first fireplaces this weekend.

Original post is Obama’s 40-Degree Inaugural Day — History Dictates a Heavy Top Coat by Political Capital.

Photograph by Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

Maryland Attorney General Joseph Curran shakes Jim Brady’s hand outside the U.S. Supreme Court during a news conference on filing a law brief. Brady was injured when John Hinckley, Jr. attacked President Ronald Reagan in 1981.

One year ago, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, one of the oldest gun-control advocacy groups, began reinventing itself with a focus on public education. It hired a new president, a New York advertising executive with no background in politics, ordered up web videos featuring celebrities and eased out its vice president who literally wrote the book on American gun policy.

Then came Newtown.

The Dec. 14 massacre of 20 children and six adults at a Connecticut elementary school horrified and transfixed the nation, undercutting the need for a public message campaign on gun violence. It also spurred, for the first time in more than a decade, a serious discussion about federal policy and legislation.

On the pro-gun side of the debate, the National Rifle Association, established in 1871, has spent years preparing for and warning of such a showdown with a singular message: No new gun restrictions. Their adversaries, meanwhile, are caught without a clear playbook as Brady is transitioning and newer groups are just beginning to take form.

“I worry, broadly, how are we going to get everyone to work together?” said Sarah Brady, whose husband, James Brady, the former Ronald Reagan press secretary shot during the 1981 assassination attempt on the president, is the group’s namesake. “We’ve got to. We can’t all be doing the same thing. We need to divvy up tasks, otherwise the whole thing could lose momentum.”

Original post is Sarah Brady’s Gun Control Worry: Getting All to ‘Work Together’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Voting at a polling station in the garage of the Los Angeles County lifeguard headquarters on Nov. 6, 2012 in Los Angeles, California.

Just how strongly Democratic is California, the nation’s most populous state?

In the Nov. 6 election, California voted more Democratic for president than the rest of the nation by the biggest gap in the history of the state, according to data compiled by Political Capital.

President Barack Obama won 60.2 percent of the vote in California and 49.9 percent elsewhere, making the state 10.3 points more Democratic than the rest of the nation. The president won 51 percent nationwide.

That gap exceeded the 9 point difference in 2008, when Obama won 61 percent of the vote in California and 52 percent in the other 49 states and the District of Columbia.

California has voted more Democratic than the rest of the nation in the past eight presidential elections. It last voted more Republican than the rest of the nation in 1980, when Ronald Reagan, a former California governor, won 52.7 percent in his home state and 50.5 percent elsewhere.

The following chart underscores how much the gap has grown in Democratic voting between California and the rest of the nation. For each presidential election year listed, the Democratic presidential nominee’s vote percentage in California is listed first, followed by his vote percentage in the rest of the nation. The third number shows the gap between the two.

2012: 60.2% / 49.9% / 10.3%

2008: 61.0% / 52.0% / 9.0%

2004: 54.3% / 47.6% / 6.7%

2000: 53.4% / 47.8% / 5.7%

1996: 51.1% / 49.0% / 2.1%

1992: 46.0% / 42.6% / 3.4%

1988: 47.6% / 45.4% / 2.1%

1984: 41.3% / 40.5% / 0.8%

1980: 35.9% / 41.6% / -5.7%

California is strongly Democratic in part because so much of its population lives in large metropolitan areas and less than 40 percent of its residents are non-Hispanic white, according to a 2011 Census Bureau estimate.

Original post is California More Democratic Than Rest of U.S. By Biggest Gap Ever by Political Capital.

Photograph by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Obama signs in Newark, New Jersey, in this file photo.

President Barack Obama won 58.3 percent of the vote in New Jersey on Nov. 6, the best showing by a Democratic presidential nominee in 48 years, according to an official count of votes released today.

Obama’s vote share in New Jersey rose from 57.3 percent in 2008, making the state one of five where the president won a greater share of the vote than four years ago. The other states are Alaska, Louisiana, Maryland and Mississippi.

Obama’ share rose in New Jersey, which voted Democratic for president for the sixth consecutive election, even as his share of the national popular vote declined to about 51 percent from 52.9 percent in 2008. About 10 states, including Democratic-leaning New York, haven’t released official vote totals.

Obama’s 58.3 percent vote share in New Jersey was the best showing by a presidential nominee since Republican Ronald Reagan won 60.1 percent in 1984, and the best performance by a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won 65.6 percent in 1964.

Original post is New Jersey: Obama’s 58% Best By Democrat Since 1964 by Political Capital.

Photograph by Chuck Myers/MCT via Getty Images

Supporters of President Barack Obama pose for a picture as they gather outside the White House in Washington, D.C., to celebrate Obama's re-election, on Nov. 6, 2012.

President Barack Obama’s re-election benefited from the largest gender gap  in the Gallup Poll’s 60 years of measuring the vote among men and women.

Obama won among women by 12 points, by 56-44 percent, and lost to Republican nominee Mitt Romney among men, by 54-46 percent.

That 20-point difference — a 12-point advantage among women and 8-point disadvantage among men — was the largest recorded by Gallup since 1952.

The president enjoyed a 14-point advantage in 2008, all among women. He tied Republican nominee John McCain among men.

Gallup said its second-biggest gap occurred in 1984, when President Ronald Reagan had a 28-point advantage among men and just a 10-point edge among women, for difference of 18 points.

Original post is Obama’s Gender Gap No. 1: Gallup by Political Capital.

Photograph by Sam Hodgson/Bloomberg

The Otay Mesa Port of Entry in San Diego, California.

The nation’s gross domestic product grew by 2 percent in the last quarter.

The Obama White House hailed this as “further evidence that the economy is moving in the right direction” — Council  of Economic Advisers Chairman Alan Krueger’s words in a blog-posting.

Republican challenger Mitt Romney called it disappointing — Obama inherited an economic problem, Romney said campaigning in Ohio today, but  “what he did with what he inherited made the problem worse.”

Bloomberg data show that good growth generally favors the incumbent in a re-election campaign, or the candidate of the incumbent’s party:

Obama’s numbers: GDP grew by 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2012, and 2 percent in the third quarter.

The recent record of GDP and elections:

– GDP grew 1.3 percent in Republican George W. Bush’s second quarter of 2008, and fell by 3.7 percent in his third quarter. Obama won the White House in a contest with Republican John McCain.

– GDP grew by 2.6 percent in Bush’s second quarter of 2004, and 3 percent in his third quarter. Bush beat Democrat John Kerry.

– GDP grew by 8 percent in Democrat Bill Clinton’s second quarter of  2000, and by 0.3 percent in his third quarter. Vice President Al Gore lost to Bush.

– GDP grew by 7.1 percent in Clinton’s second quarter of 1996, and 3.5 percent in his third quarter. Clinton beat Bob Dole.

–  GDP grew by 4.3 percent in Republican George H.W. Bush’s second quarter of 1992, and by 4.2 percent in his third quarter. He lost to Clinton.

– GDP grew by 5.2 percent in Republican Ronald Reagan’s second quarter of 1988, and by 2.1 percent in his third quarter. His vice president, the first Bush, beat Democrat Michael Dukakis.

Two percent was good enough for Reagan’s party in 1988.

Nov. 6 will tell whether it’s good enough for Obama’s in 2012.

with thanks to Bloomberg’s Chris Middleton for the data.

Original post is GDP and Presidential Elections: 2 Pct Worked for Reagan’s Party by Political Capital.