Photograph by J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., left, meets in his office with families of victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Conn., including Nelba Marquez-Greene, mother of victim Ana Marquez-Greene and Mark Barden, father of victim Daniel Barden, on the day he announced that he reached a bipartisan deal on expanding background checks to more gun buyers, at the Capitol in Washington, on April 10, 2013.

A majority of Americans favor stronger gun laws and believe undocumented immigrants should get a path to citizenship, according to a poll released today.

As the Senate prepares to vote on whether to allow gun legislation to be debated, amended and voted on, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey showed 55 percent saying that gun laws should be made more strict. That’s six times the 9 percent who said they should be relaxed. Another 34 percent said the laws should remain unchanged.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and several of his colleagues have said that they will try to prevent a debate on strengthening gun laws following the mass shootings of elementary school children in Newtown, Connecticut.

The NBC/WSJ poll also showed 64 percent of Americans approving of a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. The number grows to 76 percent when respondents are told that those immigrants would first have to pay fines, back taxes and undergo other steps.

Bipartisan groups of senators and representatives are working separately to draft immigration legislation.

The survey of 1,000 adults was taken April 5-8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Original post is Majorities Favor Stronger Gun Laws Republicans Vowing to Block by Political Capital.

Photograph by Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg

President Barack Obama walks to the White House, with just three days until the $85 billion in reductions for this year are scheduled to start.

Two surveys out today show Americans siding with President Barack Obama over congressional Republicans on how best to address the automatic spending cuts due to take effect March 1.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll taken Feb. 20-24 showed 67 percent disapproving of the way congressional Republicans were handling federal spending, 15 points worse than the 52 percent disapproving of Obama. The poll showed 43 percent approving of the way Obama was handling spending and 26 percent saying the same about Republicans in Congress. The survey of 1,021 adults had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Republicans didn’t fare any better in a Feb. 21-24 survey by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. Asked about the most important compromise Obama and Republicans should strike, respondents chose as No. 1 eliminating tax loopholes for the wealthy, which the president has proposed to offset the effects of the automatic spending cuts known as sequestration. Just 29 percent said they agreed with most of the congressional Republican agenda, while 57 percent disagreed. The poll showed 45 percent supporting most of what Obama has proposed and 46 percent disagreeing. That survey of 1,000 adults had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Obama and congressional Democrats have proposed offsetting some of the spending cuts with higher taxes on wealthy Americans, primarily by closing loopholes that benefit them. House Republicans last year voted to offset defense cuts by reducing federal funding for food stamps and other domestic programs and remain opposed to higher taxes.

Original post is Polls Backing Obama on Sequestration by Political Capital.

Photograph by Jonathan Fickies/Bloomberg

Rupert Murdoch in New York.

Rupert Murdoch, the News Corp. CEO at the helm of some of the world’s most influential media outlets, including Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, has close to 360,000 followers on Twitter — and they all know exactly who the boss wants for the White House.

It’s not President Barack Obama.

Murdoch, who prefers to air his unedited, unvetted, unvarnished opinions via Twitter, has increased the volume of his politically potent posts in the run-up to Election Day, making him one of the most vocal executives on U.S. politics this season.

He recently criticized Obama’s remarks that voting against Republican Mitt Romney would be the best revenge, and he’s been reminding his followers that a continued Obama presidency would be disastrous for the economy.

The media mogul also has claimed that news coverage appears to have slanted in favor of Obama — he has lamented about how the “monolithic media” appears to be pushing for the current president.

That could be considered a contrarian critique given the fact that Murdoch manages a $56 billion media company that owns the Wall Street Journal, the highest-circulating newspaper in the U.S., as well as Fox News, the highest-rated cable news network. Murdoch’s company also owns Twentieth Century Fox film studios, HarperCollins book publishers and the New York Post.

More recently, the 81-year-old executive went so far as to chastise New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for his full-throated praise of President Obama’s handling of relief efforts in the wake of super-storm Sandy, which decimated the Jersey Shore:  “Christie, while thanking O, must re- declare for Romney, or take blame for next four dire years.”

Twitter’s 140-character limit fits the blunt Murdoch, who’s well known for going off-script on quarterly earnings calls with analysts and reporters.

But unlike his comfortable candor on Twitter, Murdoch has chosen to skip those conference calls for the past year after a hacking scandal erupted at one of his U.K. newspapers.

That controversy has followed Murdoch to Twitter. Most of his posts are widely re-Tweeted and often elicit sharp responses.

After a recent post on which Murdoch claimed CIA chief David Petraeus had “taken fall” for Obama’s handling of the terrorist attack in Libya, a Twitter user responded, “Who took the fall for you when you bugged all those phones?”

Murdoch didn’t reply. Instead, he followed up on his previous post by writing: “Ignore last tweet. Sorry. Petraeus has NOT taken fall for O.”

Twitter, nonetheless, remains Murdoch’s most frequent and consistent personal media outlet, questioning news reports on the latest polling data and calling out politicians.

Still, one common refrain found in Murdoch’s prolific posting is something one might not expect from an executive not shy about grousing about the Beltway powerful: “Why can’t we debate civilly?”

Original post is Murdoch’s Anti-Obama Twitter Drive: Christie, Petraeus and More by Political Capital.

Photograph by Alex Wong/Getty Images

Voters cast their ballots as they participate in early voting on Nov. 2, 2012 at the Silver Spring Civic Building in Silver Spring, Maryland.

“Tight as a tick” — President Barack Obama’s words for how close the vote is in some of the battleground states that matter most.

The latest national polling portrays a virtual tie among likely voters divided between Obama and Republican Mitt Romney — 50 percent Obama, 47 percent Romney in the Pew Poll; 48 Obama, 47 Romney, at NBC News and the Wall Street Journal; 48 Obama, 47 Romney, at CBS and the New York Times; 48-48 in the daily tracking poll at ABC News and the Washington Post; 46-46 at Fox News.

Yet it is those relative few swing states that will deliver the Electoral College victory of 270 votes. And, on the eve of Election Day 2012, there are more ticks than butterflies in the swing state surveys (and it’s worth noting that these are all states that Obama won in 2008):

OHIO: A must-win for any Republican who has ever won the White House. Without it, Romney would have to cobble another path to victory. It’s Obama 50, Romney 48, in the Columbus Dispatch poll run through Sunday. It was Obama 51, Romney 45, in the last NBC, Wall Street Journal poll through Nov. 1.

FLORIDA: One of the states Romney must win to make an Electoral College majority a reality, not so essential for Obama, who won it in 2008 by 2.8 percentage points. The NBC, Wall Street Journal survey run through Nov. 1 showed Obama at 49 percent, Romney 47. A Mason-Dixon poll run for the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald over the same time period: Romney 51, Obama 45.

VIRGINIA: Another state that Romney needs to overcome the Electoral College advantage Obama has in most pre-election surveys. It is 48 Obama percent, 47 Romney, in the NBC, Wall Street Journal poll out this morning, run through Nov. 2.

IOWA: Another state that Romney has hoped to capture. It is Obama 47 percent, 42 Romney, in the Des Moines Register poll released Saturday night. This is one of the most accurate state polls in the nation.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: This is where Romney’s roll begins on election night, if he rolls. The WMUR, University of New Hampshire poll showed Obama at 51 percent, Romney 48, in a survey run through Sunday. NBC and the Wall Street Journal, working with Marist College, found 49 for Obama, 47 Romney, through Oct. 29.

COLORADO: Another cornerstone of Romney’s formula for unseating Obama, particularly if the president holds Ohio. The Denver Post reports it’s Obama 47 percent, Romney 45, in a survey run through Halloween. CNN Opinion Research found Obama 50, Romney 48, through the same time frame.

If accurate, it all adds up to a potentially long election night.

Original post is `Tight’ Swing States, Long Night? by Political Capital.

Or seven points behind him.

Pick a poll.

A survey conducted this week for the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent. The first presidential debate is cited as the reason.

That Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey for the newspapers conflicts with another swing-state poll released today: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College survey found Obama leading Romney by 48 to 47 percent in Florida. That, too, marks a shift from September, when Obama led by 51-45 percent. More sign of a debate bounce.

The Mason-Dixon survey of 800 registered voters – all likely to vote — was conducted Oct. 8-10, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The NBC/Journal/Marist poll of 988 likely voters in Florida was taken Oct. 7-9, with a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

Last month, these polls were closer. Marist College’s survey for NBC and the Journal found Obama up five points — 49-44– in a survey Sept. 9-11.  Mason-Dixon, polling for the Florida papers, found Obama up one point — 48-47 — in a Sept. 17-19 survey.

There is a methodology difference, the Times’ Adam Smith reports: “Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people’s voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent.”

The Obama campaign found another point of contention:

The Mason-Dixon poll showed 46 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Romney and 46 percent Romney, though the margin of error is higher for that number. The NBC/Journal/Marist poll found Romney favored among 62 percent of Cuban-American voters in Florida, Obama favored among 61 percent of the non-Cuban Hispanic voters — who represent a fast-growing bloc in Central Florida.

Obama adviser David Plouffe told the newspapers that Obama got 57 percent of the state’s Hispanic vote in 2008, and expects more than 60 percent this time.

Original post is Florida: Eight-Point Gap in Two Polls by Political Capital.

Photograph by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

White House senior adviser David Plouffe speaks to reporters after the Presidential Debate between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney at the University of Denver on October 3, 2012.

There’s nothing like a comeback story.

The Obama campaign, working to spin away Republican Mitt Romney’s perceived success in the first presidential debate last night, suggests that reporters have been waiting for a turnaround in fortunes.

“I think some of this is baked into the cake,” David Plouffe, a top adviser to Obama and manager of his first presidential campaign, told reporters aboard Air Force One en route from Denver to Wisconsin today. “People are itching to write a Romney comeback story.”

If there is a “bounce” for Romney in the first debate, it arrives at a long-awaited juncture for the Republican nominee.

The president’s public job approval had climbed notably in the days leading up to the debate: 54 percent approval in the Gallup Poll’s daily tracking survey running Oct. 1-3 — into the day of the first debate. It spiked four points. Disapproval was down to 42 percent.

That was the highest his approval had run in Gallup’s daily tracks since early November 2009, toward the end of his first year in office. It reached 53 percent in late May of 2011, and had slipped as low 38 percent in mid-October.

The latest poll run by National Public Radio — a bipartisan production of pollsters Republican Whit Ayres and Democrat Stan Greenberg — showed Obama with a seven-percentage-point advantage over Romney nationally. NBC News and the Wall Street Journal found a three-point edge for the president.

Obama’s advantage among registered voters has run as high as six percentage points in Gallup’s daily tracks during the past week. It was four points at the end of a seven-day run of polling yesterday — 49 Obama, 45 Romney.

So the number-watchers will be paying close attention to Plouffe’s words heading into a weekend in which Romney will be making a concerted push for the biggest swing-state of all, Florida. And in which the Obama campaign may have to work to reinforce an advantage that was taking hold in Ohio, the second-biggest swing state and bellwether that has voted the way the nation has in 12 elections.  The president will campaign in Ohio tomorrow, with Romney heading to Florida.

“We thought (Romney) gave a very theatrical and aggressive performance,” Plouffe said today. “Is that going to change minds in places like Ohio, Nevada and Virginia, we’ll have to see. But that’s  the measure. Is he going to take the lead in Ohio? If he doesn’t, he’s not going to be president.”

The two candidates won’t debate again until Oct. 16.

Plouffe is the author of The Audacity to Win.

Margaret Andersen Brower contributed to this report.

Original post is Romney’s Comeback: Plouffe’s Nightmare — Florida, Ohio Get Ready by Political Capital.

Photograph by Zhang Jun/Xinhua/eyevine/Redux

Mitt Romney at a campaign rally in Fairfax, Virginia.

Republican challenger Mitt Romney has pulled closer to President Barack Obama in two key swing states — Florida and Virginia — as he finished preparations for tonight’s first presidential debate.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College survey of likely voters Sept. 30-Oct. 1 shows Obama only marginally ahead in Florida, by 47 percent to 46 percent, and in Virginia, by 48 percent to 46 percent — statistical ties within the margin of error. Obama had been leading by five points in both states in the Sept. 9-11 NBC/Journal/Marist poll.

In Ohio, without which a Republican has never won the presidency, Obama led by 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. He was ahead, 50 percent to 43 percent, in last month’s poll

Romney has gained in Florida and Virginia among likely women voters. In Florida, Obama led, 48 percent to 45 percent among women, down from a 12-point advantage last month. Men backed Romney, 47 percent to 46 percent, after supporting him, 49 percent to 45 percent in September.

Women in Virginia backed Obama, 52 percent to 44 percent, down from 54 percent to 40 percent in September. Romney led among men, 48 percent to 45 percent, compared with a 49 percent to 44 percent advantage the previous month.

In Ohio, where Obama retained his lead, he drew the support of 56 percent of women voters surveyed, compared with 39 percent for Romney. In September, Obama’s advantage was 54 percent to 38 percent. The Republican former governor of Massachusetts led among men, 48 percent to 46 percent, unchanged from a month ago.A

Nationally, a Sept. 26-30 NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey gave Obama a 49 percent to 46 percent lead among likely voters, down from his 50 percent to 45 percent advantage in a comparable survey two weeks ago.

One reason Obama may be in the lead: Registered voters said the economy was recovering, 57 percent to 39 percent, and would improve in the next 12 months by 44 percent to 13 percent, with 35 percent saying it would not change. On the question of which candidate would better handle the economy, one point separated the two nominees, with Romney at 43 percent and Obama 42 percent.

One reason the race is close: Forty percent of registered voters said the U.S. was on the right track and 53 percent said the country was heading in the wrong direction. Still, that’s the highest positive level since 42 percent expressed optimism in July 2009.

Original post is Obama’s Florida, Virginia Leads Narrow: Swing-State Poll by Political Capital.

Photograph by Charles Dharapak/AP Photo

A post card with the words "Thank you for your support" at a donor's table as Mitt Romney speaks at a campaign fundraising event in Atlanta, on Sept. 19, 2012.

Mitt Romney has set out to recast the argument he was making at a closed-door fundraiser in May — talking about that 47 percent of Americans who are “victims” of government dependency — in a more palatable presentation.

Romney, at an open-door fundraiser in Atlanta today, was talking about President Barack Obama’s ““government-centered society” and the Democrat’s desire for a “redistribution” of wealth. He called the choice in this election one between a government-dependent nation and free enterprise.

He essentially was giving the speech that the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal today said he should be giving:

“One tragedy of the Obama presidency is how many more Americans have become dependent on the government,” the Journal’s editorial prescription reads. “I know it’s not their fault. Most want to be self-sufficient.”

Romney has rolled out a message that he has admitted to delivering in an “inelegant” fashion at a May 17 fundraising dinner, a secretly made videotape of that appearance going viral on Web sites this week.

Obama “really believes in what I’ll call a government-centered society,” Romney said today. “I know there are some who believe that if you simply take from some and give to others then we’ll all be better off. It’s known as redistribution. It’s never been a characteristic of America.”

The Journal’s editorial, presenting its argument as a leaked draft of remarks that Romney might have delivered at that May fundraiser in Boca Raton and suggesting that “maybe he’ll deliver them some time before Election Day,” wrote today:

“We want a society in which one person’s success lifts everyone else. The job of government is to create the incentives and opportunities so everyone can become a maker. But too often government wants to take more from Americans so it can make more Americans dependent on government. That’s when we lose our way.”

Romney said today:

“I believe the way to lift people and help people have higher incomes is not to take from some and give to others but to create wealth for all.”

The candidate seized on a staple of his campaign against Obama in recent months — Obama’s remark that people successful in business didn’t get there without the support of government, the roads, the schools and the rest.

“This idea of redistribution follows from the idea that if you have a business you didn’t build it, someone else did that,” Romney said today. “It’s the same concept. That see, government is responsible for everything that’s gone on here. And therefore government can take and give as it chooses. It’s an entirely foreign concept that will not work, that has not worked.

“That has never worked anywhere in the world,” Romney said. “And what we have to do in America is not to make us more like Europe, but to make America more like America…. Free people, not told what to do, but allowed to do what they as free individuals could do, that free people and free enterprises would build a stronger nation than the government-dominated society.

“Look around the world,” Romney said. “There are rich people in almost every nation in the world. The rich do pretty well, regardless of the circumstance or the system. The people who get crushed by bad economic policies like the ones we’re seeing unfolded before us in Washington, the people who get crushed are the middle class. Under this president, a record number of people have fallen into poverty.”

The Journal, noting 46 million Americans on food stamps, 40 percent of the unemployed out of work for six months or more, wrote: “This is a national scandal. Not because those fellow Americans are free-loaders, but because they aren’t able to get a good job that pays enough to be self-sufficient.”

“I want Americans to be less dependent on government not because it costs too much,” the Journal prescription reads. “I want Americans to be independent so they can realize the pride of accomplishment and the dignity of work and contribute their God-given talents to build a better country.”

“This is how America works,” Romney concluded in his remarks today. “It does not work by a government saying, become dependent on government. Become dependent upon redistribution. That will kill the American entrepreneurship that’s lifted our economy over the years. The question of this campaign is not who cares about the poor and the middle class? I do. He does. The question is who can help the poor and the middle class? I can! He can’t!”

Original post is Romney’s Campaign Journal: `Government-Centered Society’ by Political Capital.

Photograph by Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

Mitt Romney at a town hall meeting in Grand Junction, Colorado.

So just how big a drag is Mitt Romney’s history in private equity?

Not much, if you believe the latest NBC News Wall Street Journal Poll, which involved interviews from Sept. 12 to 16 with 900 registered voters.

Voters ranked “The company he headed cut jobs and sent jobs overseas” as their fifth-biggest concern out of seven possible answers. Abortion, contraception and gay marriage — lumped together as a single issue were the top concern. Voters also chose flip-flopping, wealth, and a lack of specific plans on taxes and spending ahead of the veiled private-equity reference.

President Obama, like Romney’s primary rivals before him, has pummeled Romney over his history at Bain Capital, the private-equity shop he founded in 1984 and ran for the following 15 years. The ads have been aggressive enough to warrant a send-up on “Saturday Night Live” during its season premier.

With the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, private equity took a back seat to wide-ranging questions about the size of government and budgetary policy. It faded further with last week’s turmoil in Libya and beyond, and with the Romney campaign’s reaction.

But private equity — much to the dismay of the industry Romney left behind — can’t quite stay out of the election fray. Within days of the poll being conducted came fresh evidence of Romney’s ties to his old job.

The nominee’s comments about entitlement and the Middle East that engulfed several successive news cycles this week came at a fundraiser thrown by… a private equity guy.

The May function that was surreptitiously videotaped was a fete at the Boca Raton, Florida home of Marc Leder, co-CEO of Sun Capital Partners, a private-equity firm that specializes in the hairiest of takeovers.

Who hosted the party seems to be secondary at best to what was said, but it’s still a fresh reminder of where Romney (and his money) came from, and where some of his biggest financial supporters still ply their trade.

Original post is Romney Transcends Private Equity… Until He Doesn’t by Political Capital.

Photograph by Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

President Barack Obama boards Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base on his way to New York City on Sept. 18, 2012 in Maryland.

President Barack Obama leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney even as a majority of voters continues to disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama holds a five-point advantage over Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters in the nationwide survey conducted Sept. 12-16. Obama led Romney by 50 percent to 44 percent among registered voters in the poll released today.

The results reflect the small advantage that Obama has enjoyed in some polls since the Democratic National Convention two weeks ago in Charlotte. Other surveys have shown the race tightening after a post-convention lift for Obama. The Gallup daily tracking poll gives Obama 47 percent support and Romney 46 percent among registered voters in a rolling seven-day average through Sept. 17.

The NBC/Journal poll underscores the small share of voters who say they have yet to make a choice between Obama and Romney before the Nov. 6 election. In the survey, 3 percent said they were “not sure” who they would support, 1 percent answered “depends,” and 1 percent answered “neither/other.”

By 51 percent to 47 percent, registered voters surveyed disapproved rather than approved of Obama’s handling of the economy. Still, that’s the best showing for the president on that question in the survey since May 2010. And the figures represent an improvement from last month, when the poll showed 54 percent disapproving of his record on the economy and 44 percent approving.

On Obama’s overall performance in office, 50 percent of registered voters approved in the latest poll; in August, that figure was 48 percent.

Obama and Romney are tied at 43 percent on the question of who would be better at dealing with the economy. Republican officials say 43 consecutive months of unemployment above 8 percent show that Obama’s policies have failed, while Democrats point to 30 straight months of private-sector job growth as evidence that the president’s programs have helped pull the U.S. out of its worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

On other questions, 49 percent of registered voters approve of Obama’s handling of foreign policy, down from 54 percent last month. The survey was conducted after Sept. 11 attacks on a U.S. diplomatic mission that led to the deaths of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans in Benghazi.

Poll respondents gave Obama double-digit advantages over Romney on who would be better in dealing with issues of concern to women, looking out for the middle class and handling Medicare.

The survey was conducted before Mother Jones magazine posted excerpts of a leaked video from a May campaign fundraiser at which Romney described 47 percent of Americans as government- dependent “victims” who will vote for Obama “no matter what.” Romney last night told reporters his comments weren’t “elegantly stated,” even as he declined to disavow them. Today, on FOX News, he said he was talking about a close contest with Obama in which half the voters will go one way, half the other.

The poll’s sampling margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for 900 registered voters and plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for 736 likely voters.

Original post is Obama’s Advantage Over Romney: Five Points, NBC/Journal Poll Finds by Political Capital.